Harbin’s ratings changed Ohio football
OHSAA went to a playoff system in 1972
By Steve Ruman
Even today, former Warren Western Reserve coach Joe Novak admits that back in 1972 he wasn’t quite sure what to make of the Harbin computerized football ratings.
Novak knew that his team earned points each time it won a game. He knew that his team earned additional points based on the strength of its schedule.
Beyond that?
“Well, it was exciting but very nerve-wracking,” Novak recalled. “None of us really knew how things were going to play out. We didn’t know what to expect from week to week. There was a period where we kept winning but we weren’t moving anywhere, so we figured it was best if we just didn’t lose at all.”
The Raiders did in fact go 10-0 in ’72, and as a result qualified for Ohio’s first-ever playoffs. At the time, there were just thee Classes (AAA, AA, A) and only the four regional winners from each class advanced to the post-season.
“Playing past Week 10 was special, I mean no one had ever experienced it before,” Novak said. “All of a sudden, you’re the only show in town. All eyes are on you. Everyone in the state was paying attention because this was different.”
Western Reserve defeated Toledo Scott 23-15 at Ohio Stadium in the semifinals. In the state title game played at the Akron Rubber Bowl, the Raiders downed Cincinnati Princeton 37-6.
“First off, for the kids to play in those venues, it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience,” Novak said. “Then to be playing a game, knowing that it was going to decide a title rather than voters, it was pretty intense.”
As it turned out, the playoff format came at the perfect time for the city of Warren.
In 1971, the Ohio High School Athletic Association introduced the Harbin computer ratings. They were released on a weekly basis, but used only as a trial run to determine their future viability. That year, Harding finished second in its region behind Parma in the final computer poll. However, the Panthers were crowned state champs by the Associated Press Poll — the only ranking that mattered at the time.
In ’72, Western Reserve finished second behind Massillon in the AP Poll, but was able to win a title on the field.
“The playoffs, and the system used for determining playoff qualifiers was huge for us,” Novak said. “Our program was less than a decade old. So much of the (AP) voting was based on history and reputation. We didn’t have a great tradition so it was going to be tough for us to beat out a Massillon on paper.”
Forty-six years later, the system used for determining playoff qualifiers remains the same. The formula has been slightly tweaked to account for a divisor for teams which do not play a 10-game schedule. Third-level points — points awarded based on the strength of not just your schedule, but your opponents’ schedule – were eliminated in 1974 (though used today in tie-breaking scenarios). And of course, the number of playoff participants has increased from 12 to 224.
Otherwise, the computer ratings — developed in 1970 by a cash register repairman and Wickliffe volunteer coach by the name of Jack Harbin — have stood the test of time.
“Basically, I think it just comes down to the fact that this is the best formula out there, it hasn’t been changed much because no one has come up with a better system,” said Tim Stried, OHSAA Director of Information Services. “The current system puts an emphasis on winning in the regular season, and it eliminates human intervention. It eliminates bias and opinion from the process.”
“The system has proven itself over a very long period of time.”
Today, all 50 states hold some type of high school football tournament. Qualifications range from winning a league title to owning the top record in your district to a system somewhat similar to Ohio’s computer ratings.
In Indiana and Missouri, all schools qualify for the playoffs. Illinois uses a complex system in which champions of conferences with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. The 256-team field is then competed through a system similar to Ohio’s computer ratings.
Massachusetts uses a system similar to Ohio, however it awards points for strength of schedule, even in losses. Last month Trinton Regional High School qualified with an 0-7 record.
Wyoming sends 40 teams to the playoffs, eight seeded teams in each of five divisions. The seeding process, combined with the size of the state often creates traveling nightmares. Last Saturday, Upton-Sundance traveled 515 miles to play Cokeville in a state semifinal.
In Ohio, the playoffs first expanded in 1980 when the OHSAA split the football-playing schools into five divisions, and allowed for the top two teams in each of the 20 regions to advance. The most recent expansion occurred in 2013. The 224 teams which qualify in Ohio represent 31 percent of the football-playing schools in the state. By comparison, Texas — considered by many to be the top high school football state in the country — sends 60 percent of its teams, and crowns 10 champions in a six-week process.
“It’s still very difficult to reach the playoffs in Ohio, and it’s still the only high school sport which doesn’t qualify every team,” Stried said. “Some will argue that it’s still not enough.”
Leetonia coach Paul Hulea agrees. He would like to see the playoffs expand to include up to 10 divisions.
“You look at this year, teams like Springfield, Struthers, Poland and Western Reserve all were just as good as some of the teams that made it,” Hulea said. “We should let as many kids as possible enjoy the experience. And even if we expand from here, we’re not watering down the playoffs or making them any less special.”
Hulea was one of the first coaches to experience a 15-game season. In 1999, the playoffs expanded to allow the top eight teams in each region to make the playoffs. Hulea, then coaching at Poland, led the Bulldogs to the first 15-0 record in state history and a Division III state title.
“Was it a grind? Absolutely. Unlike the pros or college, there are no bye weeks. The kids are going to school, then to practice. But not a single player or coach who goes through that experience would trade it in for anything in the world,” Hulea said.
Veteran area coach Bill Bohren was at Niles in 1999, and benefited that year from the playoff expansion. His Red Dragons went 7-3 and finished seventh in Division II, Region 5. The Red Dragons then went on the road and beat second-seeded Madison. The following year, Niles also had to travel in the postseason, but defeated a pair of higher-seeded teams, including Chaney, who at the time was ranked No. 1 in the AP poll.
“I think it was proven right off the bat that eight teams [per region] wasn’t watering down the playoffs,” Bohren said. “We’re at a good point. We’re giving most kids something to shoot for almost all season long.
“Look at a school like [Warren John F.] Kennedy. They started off 1-4, now they are on a great roll and still playing.”
Bohren said the method for determining playoff qualifiers “eliminates the corrupt vote that gave Massillon so many titles.” He also likes the fact that the computer ratings reward strength of schedule.
“You have to be smart with your scheduling, it’s almost favorable to play as an independent because all of your opponents can win on a Friday night,” Bohren said. “Besides, the conference titles mean nothing today. All these tiers, all of this blue and white and red colors. Every player would trade a league title for a chance to play in Week 11.”
Former Cardinal Mooney coach Don Bucci led the Cardinals to four state titles (1973, ’80, ’82, ’87) during a career which spanned 34 years. Without a playoff system, Bucci’s career would have been less decorated. Among those four title seasons, the Cardinals were tabbed state champs by the AP poll just once, in 1987.
“The playoffs are what put us on the map,” Bucci said. “We didn’t have that reputation that other schools had, so we had to prove ourselves on the field. Fortunately the playoffs allowed us to do that.
“Western Reserve beats Princeton in ‘72, then we beat Moeller in the semifinals in ‘73. Now the southwest corner and the rest of the state can’t ignore the strength of northeast Ohio football.”
While the computer playoff system has remained almost unchanged for more than four decades, the manner in which coaches, players and fans access the ratings has drastically changed.
Pat Guliano was the Warren Western Reserve freshman football coach in 1972 when the computer ratings first came into play. He also was assigned the role of calculating the ratings prior to their usual Wednesday release.
“The first-level points were easy to figure out, the second-level points were time consuming,” Guliano said. “Going down to those third-level points, you would spend hours and hours tracking down scores, figuring out which class each team belonged to, adding the numbers. There was no internet. You bought lots of newspapers and made lots of phone calls.”
Guliano also spent countless hours traveling across the state while scouting possible future playoff opponents.
“We weren’t sure who we were going to be playing, so we left nothing to chance,” Guliano said. “One weekend, we went to Columbus for a Friday night game, we got up and went to Toledo for a Saturday afternoon game, then ended up in Cleveland Saturday night.”
Today, access to the ratings are just a click away, and thanks to a couple of high school football fanatics they are available in real time. The website joeeitel.com provides complete scores and computer ratings, which are usually updated on Friday nights.
The website fantastic50.net takes things a bit further, providing future playoff projections and probabilities for every team in the state based on past performance. The site is run by Drew Pasteur, a mathematics professor at The College of Wooster.
Pasteur began his deep dive into high school football rankings more than 20 years ago when he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer in North Carolina.
“I always wondered how a lot of the top smaller schools would compete against the larger schools,” Pasteur said. “The mathematician in me started crunching numbers, comparing schedules, things like that. In 2000, I would take the Sunday paper and spend hours putting scores into a spreadsheet.
“When I first began the fantastic50 site, it was time consuming. I put in 10 to 15 hours a week. Now, once the season begins, most of it updates itself.”
Pasteur noted that even he is reliant on Joe Eitel and his website to access scores and update his own site. Pasteur said that fantastic50.net receives millions of views during the football season, “and that’s a fraction of the views received by joeeitel.”
“I sometimes ask myself why I do this, but the mathematician and the high school football fanatic in me keeps it going,” Pasteur said.
For that, high school football fans throughout the state are thankful.
The playoffs continue tonight with second-round games involving Canfield and McDonald. Girard, Hubbard, LaBrae and Warren JFK plat Saturday night.
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