In 1998, Poland High football coach Paul Hulea took a senior class that had a a losing record as freshmen and turned it into a playoff team, going 9-1 in the regular season and winning the Metro Athletic Conference title.

The next year, he took a senior class that had gone 4-0 as freshmen (but hadn’t won a game as pre-teens) and turned it into a Division III state champion.

Pretty good, huh?

Well, sort of. In 2004, his last year as Poland’s head coach, Hulea took a senior class that had won the MAC title as freshmen and went ... 3-7.

“There’s no science to it,” said Hulea, now an assistant at Poland. “The positive effect of having success in the lower levels is the numbers. The kids continue to play.

“Does that guarantee success as juniors and seniors? No. But at least as a head coach, it’s easier to practice. You’ve got enough guys in your class to hold full practices.”

So, the question is: How much of a role does early success have on varsity success? To answer that, I turned to three veteran coaches: Hulea, Fitch coach Phil Annarella (who won a state title with Warren Harding in 1990) and former Mooney coach Don Bucci (who won four championships before retiring after the 1999 season).

“I think if you go undefeated as freshmen or JVs, it’s a pretty good indication that you’re going to be decent,” Bucci said. “It’s not a 100 percenter.”

All three coaches agreed it’s better to be good at the lower levels than bad. (Pretty insightful, eh?) All three agreed that lower level success is an indication that you may have some pretty good talent coming up. And all three agreed that there are a lot of other factors to consider.

“I’ve seen teams go 10-0 [at the lower levels] because of the talent level,” Annarella said. “And I’ve also seen teams do extremely well because they were extremely well-coached at the ninth grade level. Sometimes the coaching makes up for a couple victories.”

Annarella also tries to implement his system at the lower levels. Fitch’s varsity is running a shotgun spread — and so does the Fitch junior varsity, freshmen and middle school teams.

“We want it to be a carryover,” Annarella said. “Most coaches try to do that. I’m blessed with some good lower level coaches who buy into our system.”

Although his freshmen teams were often trying to meld players from several different schools, Bucci liked to schedule teams such as Cleveland St. Ignatius, both to provide a challenge and to see how his freshmen would react.

“I found over the years that when our lower levels were having losing records, we were in for some trouble at the varsity level,” Bucci said. “When we had great records, we didn’t always go undefeated at the varsity level because sometimes the talent would level off. But I think it gives you a good indicator and it helps with scheduling.”

Sometimes, of course, bad lower level teams turn into good ones. Hulea said a team might be on the verge of success, but needs one or two more guys to make it come together. In 1999, Hulea found those guys in the class behind his seniors, as junior tight end/linebacker Micah Harris and junior running back Pete Perry helped the Bulldogs finish 15-0.

Oh, and one more thing. Hulea’s best lineman that year was John Bishop. Bishop was about 5-foot-10, 180 pounds in ninth grade. By his senior year, he’d grown six inches and packed on some serious muscle.

That’s what makes it so difficult to predict. The 5-7 kid who is dominating opponents in eighth grade may not grow another inch.

Just as talent can develop, talent can level off.

And talent, more than anything else, dictates success.

“We’re all better coaches when we have better players,” Annarella said.

And don’t forget — one player can make a big difference. I’m fairly certain Fitch’s freshman coaches could have found a spot for Maurice Clarett in 1998 and there are examples every season of sophomores starting on the varsity team instead of the JV.

So the next time you get excited about a freshman team that goes 8-0 or get upset about another that goes 0-8, don’t overreact.

But if several 8-0 teams struggle at the varsity level, look out.

“That better not happen too many times,” Bucci said, “or the freshman coach may soon be the head coach.”

Power poll

My top 10 teams through three weeks:

1. Ursuline, 2. Mooney, 3. Boardman, 4. Warren Harding, 5. Fitch, 6. Poland, 7. Hubbard, 8. Howland, 9. Liberty, 10. Lakeview. Honorable mention: Girard, South Range, McDonald, Springfield, Leetonia, Crestview and Western Reserve.

Bottom line: There are some pretty good area teams this year. And one (Ursuline) that looks like a favorite to win a state title.

Quick hits

If you haven’t yet, be sure to read Rick Telander’s story about his son’s knee injury in last week’s Sports Illustrated. It’s called “Friday Night Plight” and can be accessed on SI.com’s Vault section. ... Keep an eye on Girard sophomore WR Landon Smith, who was terrific last week against Warren JFK. When I mentioned him to Indians coach Bud McSuley, he smiled and said, “Shhh. We’re keeping him a secret.” ... During McSuley’s postgame interview last week, the reporter next to me was wearing a Mooney pullover. “I can’t talk to you,” he told him. “But I thought it was Ursuline you didn’t like,” the reporter said. McSuley’s response? “They’re not in our region, brother.” ... Mentor Lake Catholic coach Mike Bell on Ursuline: “They’re not your typical Division V team, that’s for sure.” ... Before the season started, a fellow reporter predicted Mooney would struggle to go 6-4 this year. I’ve seen the Cardinals twice and trust me, they’ll win more than six and play more than 10. ... The Northeastern Buckeye Conference is pretty darn good. ... So is the Steel Valley Conference.

X Joe Scalzo covers sports for The Vindicator. Write him at scalzo@vindy.com.