KARZMER: Long hitters have edge this weekend

The PGA Championship in May? Sounds weird, but I’m a big fan of the new home on the calendar for golf’s fourth major championship.

This weekend, the top players in the world are in New York at Bethpage Black’s first PGA Championship. Home to two past U.S. Opens, Bethpage Black is a familiar and difficult test for the PGA’s maiden May voyage.

At almost 7,500 yards, Bethpage is a long golf course. Factor in chillier northeast weather in May. And almost two inches of rain over the past few weeks, and this week’s PGA Championship plays as one of the longest major courses ever.

Because of the length, I simply can not picture anyone other than a long hitting player winning.

Full disclosure here — I am writing this on Thursday morning. The tournament has just started. And my eventual pick to win just birdied the first hole. I’m sure this submission will promptly jinx the rest of his tournament.

As I’ve done in the past, I am going to share some thoughts on who I think will be in contention (or not in contention) this weekend.

Phil Mickelson — No one would love to win a major at Bethpage more than Phil. Two runner-up performancws in Bethpage’s two U.S. Opens proves he can play the course. And the New York crowd is always quite, shall we say, vocal, rooting for Phil. He won earlier this year at Pebble (U.S. Open pick in a few weeks maybe?).

And he played some solid shots at Augusta last month. But I think Phil’s driving accuracy (or lack thereof) and his age will start to show. Final pick: top 50

Tiger Woods — Obviously Tiger’s Masters victory was one of the biggest stories in golf history. A back-to-back major victory this week would send our sport into complete pandemonium. I’m not sold yet on his month-long break from Masters to PGA. I understand a “limited” schedule. But I think the lack of competitive rounds will lead to some rust. I don’t think Tiger made a double bogey at Augusta. He just doubled his very first hole on Thursday. I expect him to make the cut. But not much more from there. Final Pick: Top 50. (Editor’s note: Woods did not survive Friday’s cut.)

Dustin Johnson — How can you not like DJ’s chances? He’s long. Has a controlled fade off the tee to hit fairways. And has mindset that he can win. I expect him to be there. But come up just short. Final Pick: Top three.

Rory McIllroy — The second best pick on paper. Rory does everything well. And can drive the ball as high and far as anyone in the game. Wet major championships suit his game. I think he’ll be tough to beat. But I think someone will. Final Pick: Top three.

Brooks Koepka — Probably the easiest pick I’ve made in a while. Brooks never seemed like a factor at Augusta. He lost by one shot. Unlike a lot of the big names, he played last week. His top three finish shows his game is in form. And I’ll be honest, his press conference on Wednesday where he basically stated he thinks he should win convinced me he’s going to. Sorry for the jinx, but I think Brooks goes back to back and cements himself as the favorite for the remaining two majors of the year.

Jonah Karzmer is a former golf professional who writes a Sunday golf column for The Vindicator. In his spare time he sells commercial insurance and loves getting feedback on his weekly columns via email at Jonah@thekarzmerinsurance.com.