74% of economists in survey see US recession by end of 2021

Associated Press

WASHINGTON

A strong majority, 74 percent, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn’t share Trump’s optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That’s up from 25 percent in the February survey. An additional 38 percent of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42 percent in February. Another 2 percent expect a recession to begin this year.

In February, 77 percent of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021.

A strong economy is key to the president’s 2020 re-election prospects. Consumer confidence has dropped 6.4 percent since July.

Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week’s steep drop in the financial markets. He said Sunday, “I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money.”