March auto sales expected to be 122,000 units lower than in 2018

Staff report

Edmunds forecasts 1,588,185 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in March, making for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.2 million.

This reflects a 25.3 percent increase in sales from February 2019, but a 4 percent drop from March 2018.

Sales in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to be 122,000 units lower than in 2018, a 3 percent decrease.

“We can now confidently say new vehicle sales are past their peak; the question now is what the new normal will be,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis. “With new vehicle prices continuing to rise, interest rates sustaining post-recession highs and leasing growing increasingly expensive, pressure on the market is mounting.”

Edmunds analysts said if auto sales continue to decline for the rest of 2019 at the same rate they did in the first quarter, the industry could see a significant reduction compared to 2018.

Patrick Manzi, National Automobile Dealers Association senior economist, said new light-vehicle sales will likely continue to decline for the rest of the year compared to 2018.

“But we remain confident, barring any unexpected shocks, that the auto industry is on track to sell 16.8 million new light vehicles in 2019,” Manzi said.