Use caution in analyzing FBI-released crime data

Jeff Sessions, U.S. attorney general, is trumpeting last week’s release of the FBI’s 2017 Uniform Crime Reports as a sign that the Donald J. Trump administration’s tough-on-crime stance is paying off in spades.

After all, he argues, the new report from 16,000 police departments across the nation shows an overall 3 percent drop in overall crime from 2016 to 2017, including a 1 percent decline in violent crime and a 2 percent drop in the murder/nonnegligent manslaughter rate.

Crimes against property dipped even more, registering a 4 percent decline.

Unfortunately, though, the national data must be interpreted with a fair degree of skepticism and caution. Not all police agencies report their crime data to the agency, and trends vary greatly from one community to the next.

In that regard, like politics, all crime is local. In that regard as well, the Mahoning Valley is a perfect case in point.

While most communities in our region registered slight reductions in most crimes last year, the two major population centers witnessed noteworthy increases in their most violent of violent crimes – murder.

In Youngstown, the FBI data reveal a 21 percent increase in homicides from 19 cases to 23 cases (the increase is about 45 percent if using higher local data on homicides in 2017).

In Warren, the rate shot up an alarming 450 percent – from two such deaths in 2016 to 11 in 2017.

TRUE VALUE OF REPORTS

Given such variances, the true value of the data rests with local analyses – not national composites – and their ability to serve as a report card on trends in crime and crime fighting over the past year and as a road map for law-enforcement officials to funnel time and resources into the most pressing needs of individual communities.

In Youngstown, for example, violent crime reduction must remain a paramount priority for the city police department. That’s not only because of the increase in such fatalities in the new report, but also because of the city’s long-standing stain as one of the most murderous cities per capita in the nation. Nationally, the average homicide rate is 5 per 100,000 population, according to the FBI.

Last year, Youngstown had nearly six times that number of YPD-reported homicides with only two-thirds of the benchmark 100,000 population.

Police Chief Robin Lees and others clearly must remain vigilant in chipping away slowly but surely at the violent crime rate. For that, they will need the continued help of proven effective tools, such as the Community Policing Initiative and the Community Initiative to Reduce Violence. Too, they must seek out other strategies that have succeeded in increasing public safety in other cities across the nation.

In suburban areas of the Valley, the crime reports can also serve as effective tools. Austintown, for example, reported a significant spike in violent crimes in 2017 – an increase from 52 in 2016 to 62 last year. That could be a sign that more resources and manpower could be devoted to that sector.

In Liberty, a decrease in violent crime activity could validate that one Liberty police strategy of using strict traffic enforcement as a crime-prevention tool is working.

In Poland Village, law enforcers should work diligently to ensure its perfect record of zero violent crimes in all of last year stays on track.

Collectively, the avalanche of uniform crime numbers can be overwhelming and intimidating. Their best value therefore lies not as weapons to shame communities with high crime rates but rather as guideposts for all communities and their law enforcers to better understand and respond to the specific criminal elements threatening the public peace within their boundaries.