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Despite national increase, violent crime in Valley on decline
By Justin Wier
YOUNGSTOWN
While violent crime rates rose nationally for the second-consecutive year, the Valley’s two largest cities saw violent crime rates decline or remain stable in 2016, according to FBI data released this week.
Violent crimes – which include rape, murder, robbery and aggravated assault – declined in Youngstown from 474 in 2015 to 415 in 2016. Warren experienced a small increase from 224 in 2015 to 228 in 2016.
Youngstown saw a decrease in all categories with the exception of robbery, which increased from 144 to 151.
Warren saw a slight decrease in rape and a slight increase in robberies and aggravated assaults. In both years, the city saw two murders.
Youngstown Police Chief Robin Lees said there is typically an ebb and flow in crime numbers.
“We’re certainly pleased there’s been a reduction, but we’re not going to run out and celebrate it at this point,” he said.
Violent crime rates in both municipalities still remain above the national average for cities of their respective sizes.
While Youngstown’s violent crime rate, which is measured in violent crimes per 100,000 residents, dropped 11.9 percent from 733.7 in 2015 to 646.6 in 2016, the average rate for cities with between 50,000 and 100,000 residents is 342.2.
Warren’s violent crime rate increased 2.9 percent from 554.1 in 2015 to 569.9 in 2016, but the average rate for cities with between 25,000 and 50,000 residents is 299.1.
Lees attributed part of the decline in Youngstown to the Community Initiative to Reduce Violence program that provides a mixture of social-service help to people it considers at risk.
He also acknowledged an increased focus on getting guns off the streets – police seized 175 firearms in 2016, a near-doubling of 2015’s 93 – and clearance rates on violent crimes that exceed national averages.
“We continue to follow the model that we think works,” Lees said. “If you make it through the prevention and the proactive cops, the detective’s probably going to catch you.”
The lists for at-risk individuals created by CIRV have dwindled, Lees said, adding that domestic and family-related aggravated assaults and murders have increased slightly. The department intends to focus more resources on preventing those types of murders.
Property crimes – burglary, larceny, arson and auto theft – decreased in both cities, from 2,897 to 2,426 in Youngstown and from 1,669 to 1,509 in Warren between 2015 and 2016.
Both cities saw decreases across all categories.
This may seem surprising with an increase in drug addiction across the region, but Lees said many drug-related thefts are between family members and often go unreported.
Nationally, the violent crime rate rose in consecutive years for the first time since 2005 and 2006.
Experts attribute the rise to spikes in a few isolated cities. Whether it signals the beginning of a new trend or a random blip has been a matter of debate.
But while rates have increased 3.4 percent from 373.7 to 386.3, they remain far below the peak of 747.1 in 1993.