Mahoning Valley football picture to clear up soon

October 27, 2017 at 12:09a.m.

The Ohio High School Athletic Association playoffs may officially begin in one week, but the postseason begins tonight at Arrowhead Stadium for the Liberty High School football team.

The scenario for Liberty to play beyond Week 10 is simple. If the Leopards (7-2) defeat backyard rival Girard (9-0), they will advance to the first round of the playoffs. With a loss, the Leopards’ season will come to an end.

Liberty is one of 13 area schools which will be fighting for a playoff berth in the final week of the regular season.

Girard, Canfield, Poland, Lakeview, South Range, Western Reserve, Lisbon and Valley Christian already have secured a playoff berth.

Canfield and South Range have secured No. 1 seeds in their respective regions.

“This is what you play for, this [scenario] is all you can ask for at this point of the season,” Liberty coach Chet Allen said. “We’re going up against a great team.

“Girard has an explosive offense and a great defense,” Allen said. “We’re going to have to play mistake-free football on offense, defense and special teams, and hope that it’s enough.”

After dropping its first two games of the season, Liberty has won seven straight.

“Our kids are very focused,” Allen said. “They don’t dwell on the past seven games. For us, [tonight] is for all the marbles.”

Struthers, Cardinal Mooney and Columbiana also face win-and-in scenarios. Of the three, Struthers has the most comfortable path to Week 11.

The Wildcats (7-2) visit Lakeview (8-1), but even with a loss they have a 98 percent chance of advancing, according to the fantastic50.net. The website provides detailed playoff projections and analysis based on past results and future probabilities.

Even with the favorable odds, Struthers coach Curt Kuntz is approaching tonight’s game as if it were a must-win. In 2012, the Wildcats entered the final week of the regular season with a 99 percent probability of advancing. A loss to Howland combined with a number of upsets put the Wildcats in ninth place in Region 11, .0624 points from making the playoffs.

“All sorts of crazy things happened that night,” Kuntz said. “Any team we needed to win, lost, including a 7-2 team that lost to an 0-9 opponent. Until the OHSAA tells us we’re 100 percent in, we’re going to treat this like the playoffs.”

Columbiana (7-2) can secure its playoff future with a win at East Palestine (7-2). Even with a loss, the Clippers have an 81 percent chance of advancing. An East Palestine win would almost assuredly advance the Bulldogs (99 percent) while a loss will eliminate them from consideration.

Mooney (5-4) can advance with a home win against Austintown Fitch (6-3). Even with a win, the Falcons are not expected to earn enough computer points to extend their season.

Boardman (5-4) could increase its playoff chances to 83 percent with a win over Ashtabula Lakeside (4-5), while Salem (6-3) has a 71 percent chance with a win over West Branch (3-6) on Saturday.

Springfield and Crestview both need a win and considerable outside help. Mathews and McDonald, while not mathematically eliminated, are not expected to move on.

Warren JFK (3-6) has five-game losing streak. Still, the Eagles will will have a 99 percent chance defending their Division VII state title with a win over St. Thomas Aquinas (1-8). Even with a loss, the Eagles have a better than 50/50 chance of advancing to the playoffs.

Like Kuntz, Warren JFK coach Jeff Bayuk said he doesn’t place much stock on the projections.

“In 1997 when I was at Hubbard, we thought we were a lock, then a 9-0 Solon team lost to a 5-4 opponent, and all other weird things happened and we were out by less than a point,” Bayuk said. “Until you are 100 percent in, anything can and probably will happen.”

The OHSAA will announce the official playoff pairings on Sunday. All first-round games will be played Nov. 3.