Trump's health subsidy shutdown could lead to free insurance

WASHINGTON (AP) — If President Donald Trump prevails in shutting down a major "Obamacare" health insurance subsidy, it would have the unintended consequence of making free basic coverage available to more people, and making upper-tier plans more affordable.

The unexpected assessment comes from consultants, policy experts, and state officials, who are trying to discern the potential fallout from a Washington health care debate that's becoming even more complicated and volatile.

What's driving the predictions? It's because another subsidy that's part of the health law would go up for people with low-to-moderate incomes, offsetting Trump's move.

"It's a kind of counter-intuitive result," said Kurt Giesa, a health insurance expert with the Oliver Wyman consulting firm.

Think of pushing down on one end of a see-saw and the other end goes up.

According to one estimate, more consumers would sign up for coverage next year even though Trump says the Affordable Care Act is "virtually dead."

On Thursday, the fate of the health law's subsidy for copays and deductibles remained unclear as a bipartisan congressional deal to continue payments faced political roadblocks. Separately, state attorneys general were seeking a federal court order to keep the money flowing.

Trump's attempt to shut off the subsidy for copays and deductibles would cause a different subsidy to jump up, the one for premiums.