DeWine, Sutton look like early favorites in ’18 governor’s race

With two more candidates announcing this week they are officially running in 2018 for the state’s highest office – and more to come – the race to succeed Gov. John Kasich is a crowded one.

Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley said Monday that she was going to seek the Democratic nomination while Secretary of State Jon Husted surprised no one who’s paying any attention to this campaign when he said Sunday he was going to run in the Republican primary.

Attorney General Mike DeWine, the early favorite to succeed Kasich, has yet to make an official announcement that he’ll be a Republican primary candidate for governor. That should come shortly.

In addition to Husted and DeWine, the Republican field features Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci of Wadsworth.

All are current officeholders with DeWine, Husted and Taylor successfully running statewide and Renacci, a four-term incumbent congressman who’s portraying himself as a political outsider and is wealthy enough to fund his own campaign if he chooses.

Lesser known are the four announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

In addition to Whaley, the announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates are state Sen. Joe Schiavoni of Boardman, former three-term U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton, and ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich.

One unknown for Democrats is whether Richard Cordray, a former state treasurer and attorney general, will be a candidate.

Cordray serves as director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and several Republicans are itching for President Donald Trump to fire him before his term expires in July.

Letting Cordray sit in the federal position until then would give him a late start. It doesn’t impact his chance of being a top contender in the May 2018 Democratic primary, but it does hurt his ability to raise money – and he, along with other Democratic candidates, will need a lot of it – for a general election campaign.

Let’s take Cordray out of the equation for now and not consider any other potential Democrats joining the race.

Of the four announced candidates, Sutton looks like the early frontrunner. She was elected to the U.S. House three times, served in the President Barack Obama administration as head of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corp., is a former Ohio House member and was a councilwoman on the county level [Summit] and the local level [Barberton].

She lost a close race in 2012 to Renacci for the 16th Congressional District race when Republicans redistricted the state’s congressional map making that district Republican.

Whaley announced just a few days ago, but she’s flying out of the gate. She’s finishing her first four-year term as Dayton mayor and is running unopposed for a second term this year. She also served eight years on the Dayton City Commission.

Just two days after announcing her candidacy, Whaley released an online ad about universal pre-kindergarten and the heroin crisis. While her campaign didn’t say how much was spent, a campaign spokeswoman categorized it as “a significant online buy across the state.”

Pillich won three Ohio House races in a Republican-leaning district near Cincinnati and lost the 2014 treasurer’s race to incumbent Republican Josh Mandel by 13 percentage points. It was the closest statewide election in Ohio in a horrible year for Democrats with some saying late in the campaign that Pillich and not then-Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald should have been at the top of the ticket. At that time, almost anyone would have been a better choice for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee than FitzGerald.

Then there’s Schiavoni, who’s acknowledged he’s not going to be anointed the party’s nominee. [Well, nobody is, but you get the picture.] Schiavoni has been campaigning the longest for the seat, visiting numerous counties over the past several months. He released an online video Wednesday featuring Mahoning Valley residents – including Jack Loew and Phil Kidd – touting his background and character.

A primary might be a good thing for the Democrats as it will raise the name recognition of the winner and not be terribly expensive as the candidates won’t have the amount of money to spend that Republicans running for governor will have.

A primary could be damaging to the Republicans as GOP leaders are already choosing sides and the candidates are accumulating a lot of money.

As I mentioned, DeWine appears to be the early favorite among Republicans. He’s been on the statewide ballot numerous times and is a popular officeholder.

Husted is likely to be DeWine’s toughest challenger.

Taylor was elected in 2006 as auditor, the only Republican executive office candidate to win in Ohio that year, and has been Kasich’s lieutenant governor running mate twice.

Renacci is the most curious of the four. While he can spend millions of his own cash on the campaign, he is the least recognizable Republican seeking the seat and is giving up his safe seat in the U.S. House.

His campaign paints him as a political outsider even though he’s in his fourth term in Congress, served four years as mayor of Wadsworth and four years as its city council president.