Ohio biennial budget: By the numbers

By Marc Kovac

news@vindy.com

COLUMBUS

Republican leaders in the Ohio House say the state budget is balanced.

Democrats in that chamber say it’s not.

The budget director says the numbers offered by the House GOP do add up, though Gov. John Kasich’s administration isn’t supporting some of the policy changes that went into the calculations.

And the Republican head of the Ohio Senate said bigger cuts are on the way, as actual tax and other collections continue to come in below earlier projections.

Here’s a rundown of some of the numbers you’re going to hear as the Ohio House and Senate and the governor continue deliberations on the biennial budget, heading toward an expected enactment by July 1:

12: Or, to be more precise, Article XII, Section 4. That’s the part of the Ohio Constitution that requires lawmakers to pass a balanced budget.

Lawmakers have an obligation to make sure any spending authority they approve doesn’t outpace taxes and other revenues that the state expects to receive.

$2 billion: That plus some change is what’s currently in the rainy-day fund, the money the state has set aside to deal with any budget issues in the future. It’s essentially a savings account that can be tapped when revenues and expenditures get out of whack.

Democrats and some Republicans have mentioned the budget stabilization fund as a potential source of money to boost efforts to combat drug addiction or to cover shortfalls in the new biennial budget.

But state budget Director Tim Keen said the administration does not support using the fund as part of the initial two-year budget legislation; rather, the funds are there to deal with issues that come up during the year.

It could be tapped a few months into the new fiscal year or if something happens during the current one.

$66.9 billion: Kasich’s executive budget outlined about $33.1 billion in general revenue fund spending for fiscal 2018 and about $33.8 billion in fiscal 2019.

You also may have read a bigger number – $144 billion-plus for the coming biennium – in relation to the budget. That total accounts for all budget fund groups, including the general fund.

On the one hand, the administration says the bigger number is a better, more holistic reflection of the state’s handling of public funds.

On the other, the all-funds total includes some double-counted spending, agencies funded by fees and money that isn’t even state spending, such as tax refunds or county sales taxes.

$800 million: Throw an “at least” before that number and you have the adjustment lawmakers and the administration announced they would have to make to what Kasich proposed in his executive budget. That change will be achieved through a mix of spending cuts and so-called “revenue enhancements.”

$63.7 billion: The version of the budget passed by the House outlined $31.6 billion in spending for fiscal 2018 and $32.1 billion for 2019, or $63.7 billion in total.

But that doesn’t mean the House cut $3 billion-plus from the executive proposal. Accounting and policy changes, including a move to give lawmakers more control over Medicaid spending, makes comparing the executive and House general revenue fund spending totals problematic.

$773.7 million: That’s the difference between what the administration estimated would be collected in taxes through the end of April versus what was actually collected for the year to date.

Tax collections have been coming in below estimates for months, with continued underperformance in income tax withholding and nonauto sales taxes.

April’s results, released a few days ago, were lower than expected, due to higher-than-expected refunds (about $82 million above the estimate), Keen said.

$400 million: That’s how out of balance House Democrats say the House-amended budget is. And they blame Kasich and Statehouse Republicans for tax cuts and other policy changes in recent years.