KARZMER: 2017 Open winner open for discussion

The traditions continue. This week I will attempt to give some insight and “pick the winner” of this week’s upcoming major championship, the 117th U.S, Open at Erin Hills in Wisconsin. In reality, I’ll most likely jinx one of the odds-on favorites.

When looking at this year’s course, it’s hard not to draw an immediate comparison to 2015 U.S. Open at Chamber’s Bay in Washington. Newer course. Long. Rolling terrain. No trees. Fescue grass. And large green complexes that present multiple options for players when they miss the greens.

Chamber’s Bay wasn’t all that well received by the players. But it did produce an exciting finish that lead to Jordan Spieth’s second straight major victory. I think Erin Hills will get a better reception by the players. And I think the winner will be a familiar name:

Rickie Fowler: I don’t think he wins his first major. But he should be up there. Playing well (see last week at The Memorial). But he still hasn’t learned how to win. My Pick: Top 10.

Rory McIlroy: Starting to be the opposite of Fowler ... I don’t think he contends as often. But he knows how to win when he does. I think he’s actually “under the radar” for as good as he is. But for good reason. Top 30.

Sergio Garcia: The Masters champion has his first chance to go back-to-back in majors. I think the “first major victory” hangover is real. He makes the cut, but isn’t seen much on the weekend. Top 50.

Justin Rose: The opposite from above. The Masters runner-up is probably hungrier than ever. He’s a proven winner (U.S. Open, The Olympics) who wants another major. I think he’s “oh so close” again this week. Top 5.

Phil Mickelson: I find it hard to believe there wasn’t an opportunity for naming rights at his daughter’s high school. One million dollars to name the gym the Mickelson Family Gymnasium? Oh, and you just need to have commencement any weekend but this one! If Phil really can’t make the scheduling work, I commend him for not missing his daughter’s high school graduation speech. But it will be a blow to the game if he’s not there competing for his career grand slam.

Bubba Watson: A contender last week, Bubba’s not the USGA’s biggest fan when it comes to U.S. Open setups. I don’t think it gets any better this week. He’s not my favorite anyway, so I’m not upset with this pick. Missed cut.

Thomas Pieters: My dark horse pick. I think he’s a big game contender. Top 15.

Spieth and Justin Thomas: Half of the “Spring Break” crew. They know how to win. And have been on form recently. I think they’re relevant. But not winners this week. Top 20 for each.

Steve Stricker: The hometown hero. Wisconsin’s own has proven in recent weeks he can still compete on the regular tour. I heard a stat last week that he’s made 52 consecutive cuts in majors. That’s every cut in every major for 12 consecutive years! Somehow, he had to go to sectional qualifying (he was medalist this past Monday) just to get into the event. Golf loves a good story. Stricker winning his first major, after 50 years old, at the first major ever held in his home state? Sounds like a good story to me. And with Phil out, he’ll be the sentimental favorite for sure. I think he’s relevant. But comes up short. Top 10

In the end, I just can’t go against ...

Dustin Johnson: Pretty tough to pick against the world number one right now. He’s dominant when he’s on. He clearly knows how to win having won three in a row earlier this season and last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont. His length is a difference maker. I think he got the “bad” out of him at last week’s Memorial. And if not for the slip/withdrawal in Augusta, I think we’d be talking about a Johnson slam. I just can’t pick against him. In fact, I think he wins by more than four shots.

For betting purposes, please remember I’ve yet to pick a winner correctly yet. The closest I came was in 2015 when I picked Johnson to win the U.S. Open at Chamber’s Bay and he three-putted the last hole to ... Sorry DJ!

Jonah Karzmer is a former golf professional who writes a Sunday golf column for The Vindicator. In his spare time he sells commercial insurance and loves getting feedback on his weekly columns via email at Jonah@thekarzmerinsurance.com.