March auto sales to increase, but inventory levels and incentives are up

By Kalea Hall

khall@vindy.com

YOUNGSTOWN

While March auto sales are expected to show an increase, inventory levels along with incentives also are on the rise.

“Things probably need to look different at some point soon,” said Jessica Caldwell, senior auto analyst for Edmunds. “I think they [automakers] know inventory levels are high.”

New-auto sales in March are expected to see as much as a 3 percent year-over-year increase. Automakers are to release their sales today.

Analysts at Edmunds predict a 2 percent increase in new sales to 1.6 million. Kelley Blue Book analysts forecast a 3 percent rise to a total of 1.63 million new sales. Meanwhile, analysts for ALG, a TrueCar Co., predict a 0.2 percent year-over-year increase in auto sales to 1.58 million.

March 2016 and 2017 have the same amount of selling days.

“March of last year wasn’t the strongest,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

Kelley Blue Book predicts General Motors will shine in March with its sport utility vehicle sales. Sales of the new Chevrolet Equinox, Buick Envision and GMC Acadia could lead to a 9 percent increase in March 2017 overall sales for the Detroit automaker.

Meanwhile, analysts project Ford will post about an 8 percent decline in overall sales. Analysts project Fiat Chrysler will post about a 2.8 percent increase in sales.

Foreign automaker Honda is expected to post a 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent increase in auto sales, while analysts predict Toyota will post a 0.8 percent decrease to a 1.2 percent increase in its overall sales.

The shift away from cars to SUVs will continue in March. Kelley Blue Book analysts project a 16.5 percent decrease in midsize-car sales and a 5.9 percent decrease in compact-car sales in March.

The compact sport utility vehicle/crossover segment is expected to see an increase of 15 percent in new sales during March.

“It still amazes us here,” Fleming said. “It really seems like the trend or the shift to SUVs is accelerating because this is going on for more than a couple of years now.”

This March, cars will make up 37 percent of sales, after they were 42 percent of sales last year and 50 percent in 2013, Fleming said.

The move away from small cars led GM to cut the third shift at the General Motors Lordstown Assembly Complex where the Chevrolet Cruze, a compact car, is built. Today, the first- and second-shift production will start up again after a three-week hiatus.

“Definitely the membership is happy to be going back to work and doing what they do every day,” said Robert Morales, president of United Auto Workers Local 1714, which represents the fabrication plant workers at the plant. “They were able to get some training in the plant while we were down.”