On track

Associated Press

WASHINGTON

Don’t expect much more from the U.S. economy this year – it may have already peaked.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, grew at annual rate of 2.9 percent in the July-September quarter, shaking off a lackluster first half and accelerating to its strongest growth in two years, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The improvement was powered by a rebound in exports and a decision by businesses to restock their shelves.

The latest figure was double the 1.4 percent rate in the second quarter. The details, however, point to signs that the pace is unlikely to last.

The rise in exports was fueled by a surge in shipments of soybeans to South America. That’s probably not going to happen again. The strength in inventory rebuilding also looks to fade in coming quarters.

Moreover, consumer spending growth slowed from a breakneck pace in the second quarter. Business investment was barely positive, still trying to recover from sharp cutbacks in the energy industry after oil prices plunged. Home construction also contracted for a second quarter, although economists believe that setback will be temporary.

Gregory Daco, head of U.S. Macroeconomics at Oxford Economics, said the third-quarter results “may be as good as it gets in 2016.” He forecasts slower growth of around 2 percent in the current October-December period.

“Going forward, we expect a modest expansion in economic activity, but we note the economy may be in a fragile equilibrium,” Daco wrote in a research note.

Still, the better-than-expected GDP reading for the third quarter keeps the Federal Reserve on track to boost interest rates next month. Economists believe a rate hike at next week’s meeting is unlikely so close to the U.S. presidential election.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the report “confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year.”