BRIDGE

BRIDGE

East-West vulnerable, North deals.

NORTH

xK Q

uQ J 8

vA 7 6 5 4 2

w9 6

WEST EAST

x10 8 3 2 x9 7 5

u3 u9 6 4 2

vK J 10 8 3 vQ 9

w10 5 2 wK J 4 3

SOUTH

xA J 6 4

uA K 10 7 5

vVoid

wA Q 8 7

The bidding:

NORTH EAST SOUTH WEST

1v Pass 1u Pass

2v Pass 2x Pass

3u Pass 4w Pass

4v Pass 4x Pass

6u Pass 7u All pass

Opening lead: Jack of v

An expert looks at bridge in the ”long run,” the long run, of course, being the rest of his life. As long as he is sure that he made the correct percentage play on a hand, he is satisfied with his effort even if a different, inferior play, would have succeeded when his play failed. He knows that he will come out ahead in the long run.

South won the opening lead with dummy’s ace of diamonds, shedding a club from his hand, and stopped to plan his play. He could have simply taken the club finesse, but no expert wants to risk a grand slam on a finesse when a better chance is available elsewhere. Declarer cashed dummy’s king and queen of spades, crossed to his hand with the ace of clubs, and discarded dummy’s remaining club on the ace of spades. He ruffed a club in dummy, ruffed a diamond in his hand, and ruffed his last club with dummy’s jack of hearts. Needing only to draw the trumps at this point, South overtook the queen of hearts with his ace and cashed the king. The unlucky 4-1 trump split ended his chances and he finished down one.

Our good friend Abner, the great mathematician, tells us that a 3-2 trump split is a 68 percent chance -- much better than the 50 percent club finesse, but South also needed a 4-3 spade split, reducing his chance to about 41 percent. South slept poorly that night, worrying about the long run.

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