Consumers are expected to slow down on auto shopping in September

October 3, 2016 at 12:05a.m.

YOUNGSTOWN

Autotrader senior analyst Michelle Krebs and other analysts now aren’t sure if this year will turn out to be another record-breaker for auto sales.

“We expect the year to come in between 17.3 million to 17.6 million,” Krebs said. “It’s still too close to call.”

Analysts could have a better feel for how the year will end when automakers release their sales data today.

Last year, automakers had their best year ever with 17.47 million sales.

Analysts originally expected another record-breaking year in 2016, but a slowdown in consumer demand led them to reconsider.

For September, sales are expected to be down by at least 2 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.41 million, according to Kelley Blue Book analysts. September 2015 and September this year had the same amount of sales days at 25.

“We are still at very high levels,” Krebs said. “We knew that the [sales] were so big last year that it would be difficult.”

KBB expects most automakers to post a decline, with Ford posting the largest drop at 8.7 percent. General Motors, which has cut back on its fleet sales to increase residual values, is expected to post a 1.7 percent decline, according to KBB.

Larger vehicles were still on trend in September. Compact utilities are expected to see a 3 percent increase in sales, according to KBB. Meanwhile, compact cars could decrease by 1.3 percent, and midsize cars are expected to show a drop of 17.2 percent.

TrueCar also expects sales to slow down in September by about 2 percent. TrueCar predicts an even larger decline for Ford at 9.6 percent. TrueCar analysts expect General Motors to post a decline of 0.5 percent.

“We still see consumer demand softening across the industry,” said Patrick Min, senior analyst at TrueCar.

With a slowdown in sales, automakers have upped the incentive spending to get buyers out to dealerships.

“It’s getting more challenging for dealers and automakers to sell cars without a little extra,” Krebs said.

Although other analysts aren’t sure how the year will end, TrueCar analysts still expect another record-breaker.

“We think this will be the seventh straight year of year-over-year increases,” Min said. “Overall, 2016 is still showing tremendous strength.”