Poll: Clinton edges Trump in Rust Belt

Bloomberg News (TNS)

CHICAGO

Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points among middle-income voters in the Rust Belt, a key demographic he almost certainly needs to become president.

Likely voters with annual family incomes of $30,000 to $75,000 in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin back Clinton over Trump, 46 percent to 39 percent, the latest Purple Slice online poll for Bloomberg Politics shows.

The findings should sound an alarm for Trump because they show he’s failing – at least so far – to dominate among the sort of voters thought to be more sympathetic to him. The poll also splashes cold water on suggestions that the real-estate developer and TV personality is well positioned to win in the Rust Belt.

“If he can’t improve his performance among these working-class voters, he may need to build a more-conventional Republican coalition to win,” said pollster Doug Usher.

The survey, led by Usher, was conducted May 18-24 by Washington-based Purple Strategies, using a nationally representative opt-in panel of 803 respondents. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Since the four states vary in size, they were weighted based on their number of voters in past elections.

The poll is the latest in a series commissioned by Bloomberg Politics on key slices of the electorate that will help determine the outcome of the 2016 election. The last survey, in April, found Trump was seen negatively by almost three-quarters of married women likely to vote in the general election.

Voters in the income bracket polled, a group that represents more than four in 10 of past presidential-election voters in these Rust Belt states, almost always vote for the winner.

In 2012, exit polling didn’t have these exact income breaks. Four years earlier, Barack Obama carried these voters nationwide by slightly less than his overall margin. In these four states, he carried them by the same margins he won statewide. Nationally, the income range in the poll voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election from 1992 through 2008.

If the same patterns hold, Trump likely would have to carry this group to win. He plans to focus on the Rust Belt in part because he may face greater headwinds in some other swing states with larger populations of Hispanic voters, many of whom he has alienated. If he carries Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – and all other states follow their 2012 vote – he would win the presidency with 270 electoral votes, the exact amount necessary.

The poll illustrates the racial divide playing out between Clinton and Trump. When only the white middle-income participants are considered, the billionaire beats Clinton 44 percent to 40 percent.

That’s behind where Republican Mitt Romney finished with white voters against Obama in the last election, when exit polls showed the former Massachusetts governor winning 59 percent of the white vote.

Whites made up 84 percent of the poll’s participants. Besides race, there are several other major demographic differences in support for Clinton and Trump among these voters in the four states.

Clinton leads among women, 49 percent to 34 percent, while Trump has a narrow advantage among men. Trump does best among those with a high-school education or less, while Clinton is strongest among those who have a college degree or more.

The former secretary of state has more support in urban and suburban areas, while the real-estate investor and former reality-television star is strongest among those who live in small towns or rural areas. Among independent voters, always a critical in presidential elections, Trump leads 40 percent to 37 percent.

Trump is viewed much stronger than Clinton on two themes strongly resonating with this year’s electorate: knowing what it takes to create jobs and having the ability to change the way Washington does business.

Overall, almost three-quarters of those polled say they see the need for major changes in how government does things.

“Middle-income voters in these states are hungry for change in the way government works, and they are hungry for jobs,” Usher said. “These are the two issue areas where Trump holds solid leads over Clinton. It’s his foundation for growing his support.”