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Youngstown’s population continues to decline
YOUNGSTOWN
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Youngstown lost 0.7 percent of its population between 2014 and 2015, but the actual decline is significantly greater.
That’s because the bureau didn’t include the loss of about 1,400 federal prisoners last year from a private prison in the city when estimating Youngstown’s 2015 population.
Prisoners are counted as residents of the city in which they’re incarcerated, according to the bureau.
The estimated number of residents in Youngstown as of July 1, 2015, is 64,628, a loss of 438 people from the city compared with the July 1, 2014, estimate of 65,066, according to bureau numbers released Wednesday.
The city has lost an average of 471 people annually since the 2010 census. The 2010 census counted 66,982 Youngstown residents.
“Putting the prison issue aside, I’m relatively comfortable that our [annual] population loss is at the 450-470 level even though we’re probably among the worst [population declines] in the country,” said Mayor John A. McNally. “I look at The Vindicator, and we have a lot more deaths than births in the city. We have kids who go off to college and don’t come back. We have retirees who go South. All of that drives our population.”
Between the 2010 census count and the 2015 estimate, Youngstown lost 2,354 residents – 3.5 percent of its population. That’s one of the nation’s highest percentage declines for cities with at least 50,000 residents between 2010 and 2015.
The federal prisoners, who were relocated by May 31, 2015, from the Northeast Ohio Correctional Center on the East Side, are included as city residents in the July 1, 2015, census estimate.
If they weren’t counted, Youngstown’s population loss would be 2.8 percent between 2014 and 2015, and 5.6 percent between 2010 and 2015.
“What’s needed to stem this tide of losing residents is economic opportunities,” said Mike Hripko, Youngstown State University’s associate vice president for research. “YSU is working to advance manufacturing, technology and medical care, but it’s a gradual process. We first need to stabilize the population before we can move in a positive direction. We all wish it could be an immediate infusion of jobs and opportunities,” but it takes time.
In years without census reports, the bureau provides annual estimates using birth and death records, and migration data. It doesn’t include the loss of prisoners.
The bureau’s annual estimated data has proved somewhat unreliable, however.
For example, the 2013 initial estimate for Youngstown was 65,184. It was then updated to 65,493 a year later, and the latest estimate, released Wednesday, has the city’s population at 65,505 for that year.
The city’s population peaked in 1950 when it was 168,330. With the 64,628 estimate for 2015, the city’s population has decreased by 62 percent since 1950.
That includes an 18.4 percent decline between 2000 and 2010, and a 14.9 percent decline between 1990 and 2000. Both were among the top five-largest percentage population declines in the nation between decennial census reports.
While the city will never return to its 1950 number, McNally said, “We need to get to a zero-population loss before we can talk about a population increase.”