Will robot cars drive traffic congestion off a cliff?

Associated Press

WASHINGTON

Self-driving cars are expected to usher in a new era of mobility, safety and convenience. The problem, say transportation researchers, is that people will use them too much.

Experts foresee robot cars chauffeuring children to school, dance class and baseball practice. The disabled and elderly will have new mobility. Commuters will be able to work, sleep, eat or watch movies on the way to the office. People may stay home more because they can send their cars to do things such as pick up groceries they’ve ordered online.

Researchers believe the number of miles driven will skyrocket. It’s less certain whether that will mean a corresponding surge in traffic congestion, but it’s a clear possibility.

Gary Silberg, an auto-industry expert at accounting firm KPMG, compares it to the introduction of smartphones. “It will be indispensable to your life,” he said. “It will be all sorts of things we can’t even think of today.”

Cars that can drive themselves under limited conditions are expected to be available within five to 10 years. Versions able to navigate under most conditions may take 10 to 20 years.

Based on focus groups in Atlanta, Denver and Chicago, KPMG predicts autonomous “mobility-on-demand” services – think Uber and Lyft without a driver – will result in double-digit increases in travel by people in two age groups: those over 65, and those 16 to 24.

Driverless cars are expected to make travel both safer and cheaper. With human error responsible for 90 percent of traffic accidents, they’re expected to sharply reduce accidents, driving down the cost of insurance and repairs.

But the biggest cost of car travel is drivers’ time, said Don MacKenzie, a University of Washington transportation researcher. That cost comes down dramatically when people can use their travel time productively on other tasks.

The congestion nightmare would result if a large share of people can’t be persuaded to effectively share robot cars with strangers and to continue using mass transit, Lauren Isaac, manager of sustainable transportation at WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff, Isaac said.