Do polls really matter?

COLUMBUS

By now, you’re probably sick of hearing about polls.

I know. I am too. Seems like every day there are a handful of new ones, touted by one candidate or another, purportedly giving a real indication of the way the presidential or other races are swinging.

Donald Trump will hold up one, showing that he’ll be the ultimate winner. Ted Cruz and John Kasich hold up others, showing that they’re the candidates to beat.

Some are pretty close to on target. Many are nonsense.

I generally only write about the surveys completed by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. They’ve been questioning Ohioans on issues since I started covering the Statehouse, and their findings have been a good gauge of the electorate.

I’ll write about the University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll, too, though that one isn’t completed as frequently.

Most of the results are typical he/she’s ahead, he/she’s behind stuff. But occasionally the pollsters show they have some personality and throw questions in the mix to liven the conversation.

Take Quinnipiac’s national presidential poll released last week.

The main results weren’t too different from its earlier polls – Trump and Hillary Clinton are still ahead, though Gov. John Kasich remains the lone Republican to top Clinton in a potential general election matchup. Kasich also had the highest favorability score among GOP candidates.

Violence at rallies

There were other questions about violence at Trump rallies – many of those polled said the billionaire businessman was either “very” or “somewhat” responsible, while others said the same about the protesters involved.

Then there was this: The 1,451 registered voters involved in the poll were asked to offer one word that best describes how they felt about Trump or Clinton becoming the next president.

Words that were offered at least five times were listed were released for public perusal.

Clinton appeared to fare better in the results. Of the 55 terms offered for her potential election, fewer than 30 were outright negative. Another 18 were positive, while eight or so were somewhere in the middle.

“Disaster” was most often mentioned, followed by “Good,” “Scared,” “Disappointed,” “Hopeful,” “OK,” “Excited,” “Great” and “Liar.”

Of the Top 10 terms, five were generally positive and five were generally negative.

Compare that to Trump’s responses: Of the 52 or so words on that list, more than 30 used were generally negative. Another dozen were generally positive, and the rest were somewhere in the middle.

A total of 117 people said they were “Scared” by the prospect of a Trump presidency. Others said, “Disaster,” “Frightened,” “Terrified,” “Horrified,” and “Disgusted.”

Of the Top 10 terms, seven were generally negative, with three (“Good,” “Great” and “Hopeful”) that were positive.

The results may prove that people are more apprehensive about a Trump presidency than a Clinton presidency and will vote accordingly if they are the ultimate general election candidates.

Or they may mean nothing. I mean, it is just another poll.

Marc Kovac is The Vindicator’s Statehouse correspondent. Email him at mkovac@dixcom.com or on Twitter at OhioCapitalBlog.