Valley GOP fails Kasich

Two days before the all-important March 15 presidential primary in Ohio, there was a gathering in Columbiana County at the shrine of the Mahoning Valley GOP. The star of the event was Gov. John Kasich, who had pinned his presidential hopes on winning the Buckeye State.

The atmosphere at the Spread Eagle Tavern & Inn, whose walls are adorned with photographs of Republican presidents, governors and the like, was heavy with a feeling of optimism. And the presence of such party movers and shakers as David Johnson, chairman of the Columbiana County GOP whose family owns the Spread Eagle, and other well-known Ohioans, including James Tressel, president of Youngstown State University and former head football coach of the national champions Ohio State University, spoke to the hometown advantage Kasich enjoyed.

On Tuesday, the two-term governor raced to victory, and in so doing breathed new life into his flagging campaign for the Republican nomination for president. As an added bonus, Kasich’s win was a setback for Donald Trump, the New York City billionaire who had set his sights on the two delegate-rich states, Ohio and Florida.

Trump carried Florida and took all 99 delegates. Had he won Ohio, he would have gained another 66. Instead, Kasich claimed the delegates.

But while the governor received a huge boost Tuesday, he failed to carry the Mahoning Valley. The Donald steam-rolled the Republican Party bigwigs in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties.

convention battle

The region was tailor- made for the governor because the race featured one of the most controversial figures in the history of American presidential politics. Trump is giving the Republican Party establishment convulsions. The prospect of his being the party nominee has prompted talk of a battle royale at the GOP convention in July in Cleveland.

Trump carried all three counties in the Valley: In Mahoning, he received 17,139 votes to 12,669 for Kasich; in Trumbull, 15,125 to 9,792; and in Columbiana, Trump garnered 8,823 votes to 7,094 for Kasich.

To be sure, the votes for Trump and Kasich included Democratic and Independent crossovers. But here’s a reality check for GOP insiders who view Tuesday’s primary as a political coup in the heavily Democratic Valley: The crossover voters did not have a Come-To- Jesus moment and converted to Republicanism.

Rather, most of them were drawn to the one man who will never be welcomed into the GOP inner sanctum: Trump.

The political novice – he does have a long history of contributing to Democratic and Republican candidates – has tapped into a growing segment of the electorate that certainly doesn’t fit the definition of a traditional Republican. The mostly angry, white male, blue- collar workers are giving Trump the edge in the race. In the Valley, as has been pointed out numerous times in this space, the cross-over Democrats would be considered true believers of the late area Congressman James A. Traficant Jr., a Democrat.

So, why would the outcome of Tuesday’s Republican presidential primary in the tri-county area be seen as a failure on the part of the GOP to deliver for Kasich?

The answer lies in the governor’s re-election bid in 2014.

Indeed, the outcome of the general election may well have set the stage for Kasich’s political future.

If you were to pick an exact date when he began to seriously contemplate a presidential bid, it would be Nov. 4, 2014. That’s the day Kasich scored a landslide victory in his quest for a second term as governor.

The win was so impressive and complete that it had Democratic Party leaders in the state spewing political gibberish.

Kasich, who had won by a whisper in 2010 over Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland, trounced his challenger, Ed FitzGerald, by more than 900,000 votes – 1,922,436 to 989,201.

It was a political whipping heard round the country.

Democrats were shell-shocked – no more so than in the predominantly Democratic Mahoning and Trumbull counties, which have a well-earned reputation of being loyal to the party.

The governor not only crushed FitzGerald in Columbiana County, which more often than not votes Republican, but he defeated the Democratic nominee in Mahoning and Trumbull counties.

And given the huge advantage that the Ds have over the Rs, cross-over voting was a major reason for Kasich’s success in the Valley.

In Mahoning, the governor received 35,578 votes, while FitzGerald, who was Cuyahoga County executive at the time, managed 28,376.

In Trumbull, Kasich garnered 31,382 votes, to 23,536 for FitzGerald.

In Columbiana, the Republican nominee got an expected large vote of 18,895, to 7,217 votes for the Democrat.

The ability of a Republican candidate to attract Democratic and Independent voters in the Valley was a political coup.

Thus, it came as no surprise when Kasich threw his hat in the Republican nomination ring last July. And from the outset, he sought to separate himself from the field of 16 other hopefuls by stressing his state and federal government experience and shying away from the ideological extremism that defined many of the other candidates.

But it remains to be seen if being the only adult on the campaign trail will be enough to send Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz packing.

Kasich’s only hope is a brokered convention where delegates won by all the candidates other than Trump could be up for grabs.

It’s a long shot, but the win in Ohio has given Kasich new political life.