Will Sanders take Ohio delegates from Clinton?

March 12, 2016 at 12:01a.m.

By GRAIG GRAZIOSI

news@vindy.com

YOUNGSTOWN

Despite Hillary Clinton’s historic success in Ohio, supporters of Bernie Sanders are optimistic about the senator’s odds in Ohio’s primary election Tuesday.

After an upset win in Michigan, Sanders’ campaign is counting on Ohio’s historically strong union base, disenfranchised workforce and young voters to prove that the Michigan win was more than a fluke.

Sanders’ official campaign efforts have been minimal in Ohio, and leading up to the primary the senator has been focusing almost exclusively on bolstering support in Florida.

This has done little to curb the enthusiasm of Sanders’ Ohioan supporters. The first Sanders campaign headquarters to open in Ohio in Lakewood was launched with nearly no official support from the campaign. Grass-roots volunteers across have been building an Ohio support base for the Democratic candidate independently of the official campaign.

Bob Haas, a volunteer at the recently opened Sanders’ campaign headquarters in Niles, has been working alongside other volunteers to rally support for the senator in the Valley.

The volunteers are not just sticking fliers in mailboxes and doors. “We’re ringing doorbells, we’re talking to people — I’m going to Kent State here in a few days to talk about distributing literature there and YSU has an active volunteer group,” Haas said. “We’re trying to engage people face to face, and it’s working.”

Millennial voters have provided a consistent base of support for the Sanders campaign, and have defied expectations by turning up in large numbers to vote in the primaries. “The millennials supporting Bernie is what tells me we’re on the right track,” Haas said.

There is still a disconnect, however, between the number of millennials supporting the senator and those that actually show up to vote.

Though fewer voters, regardless of demographic, vote in primaries, millennials are especially underrepresented. To participate in a primary, a voter must declare allegiance to a political party. A Pew research survey found nearly half of all millennial voters consider themselves politically independent, leaving them without the opportunity to participate in primary voting.

Ernie Barkett, a delegate for Sanders and the president of the Youngstown State University College Democrats, acknowledges the disparity but is confident the excitement surrounding Sanders’ campaign will translate to votes.

“The voter turnout may not be what we expected, but it’s still very high. In my experience of organizing a lot of political events, organizing college students for Bernie Sanders has been significantly easier than it has been for any other campaign I’ve ever worked on by far,” Barkett said. “So maybe some students aren’t going out to vote as much as we’d like, but the volunteer base is a lot greater and more willing to work than I’ve seen in any other political campaign.”

Union workers and blue- collar laborers are also a highly sought-after — and contested — demographic for the competing candidates.

Fourteen of Sanders’ top campaign contributors are unions or labor organizations. Whether that support will translate into votes in Ohio’s primary is unclear. Clinton attempted to paint Sanders as anti-union by highlighting that the senator voted against the 2012 autoworkers’ bailout.

This tactic ultimately failed to derail Sanders’ labor support when the senator responded by highlighting Clinton’s historical support of free trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the North American Free Trade Agreement. Critics of free-trade agreements argue that they result in lowered regulations on safety and environmental issues and encourage job loss to overseas industry.

“I think there’s a mix in union supporters between Bernie and Hillary. I think if we get a chance to talk to people and start expressing our message — that we’re not just interested in protecting older workers but the upcoming generation of workers as well — they see the value in Bernie’s message,” Haas said.

David Betras, Mahoning Valley Democratic Party chairman and a delegate for Clinton, rejects the idea that voters are split along labor lines, arguing they are driven more by ideological divisions within the party.

“I think Bernie’s draw is not so much his relationships with labor unions and blue- collar workers, but that he’s anti-establishment. That’s why a lot of times you’ll hear people say they don’t know if they’re voting for Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump — they’re both looked at as anti-establishment outsiders ... they’re both populists,” Betras said.

Despite the efforts of organizers on the ground, polling data still heavily favors Clinton to win Ohio.

In 2008, Clinton decisively won Ohio in her primary race against Barack Obama, with Obama taking only five of Ohio’s 88 counties and earning nearly 10 percent fewer votes than Clinton. Clinton would ultimately lose the nomination, but her supporters are relying on another strong showing this year to further cement her national lead over Sanders.

“I think Mahoning County has always strongly supported the Clintons, and I expect Hillary Clinton to win Mahoning County by at least 10 percentage points,” Betras said.

Win or lose come Tuesday, Sanders supporters believe the senator already has won a major victory by forcing the Democratic party — and Hillary Clinton — further to the left.

“I think this is a rebellion against the machine, but I think the political movement is happening. I don’t think his message is a fad, and I think honestly it’s going to have a lasting effect on the Democratic party and on American politics,” Barkett said.