KARZMER: U.S. Open prediction is leaning left

Summer is officially upon us and with it comes one of my favorite tournaments — The U.S. Open. This year, our national championship returns to the course its visited more than any other — Oakmont Country Club outside Pittsburgh.

As has become custom, I’m going to give a few “picks” on where I think some of golf’s biggest names may finish. My apologies to the player I pick to win as I have successfully jinxed every pick for the last four years.

Unlike last year at Chambers Bay, this year’s Open should return the USGA to their more traditional setup: tight fairways, punishing rough, firm and fast greens. And in Oakmont’s case, extremely difficult greens with treacherous pin positions.

Because of these conditions, I think ball striking and scrambling will be pivotal in deciding an eventual champion. With that in mind, here’s where I think some guys will finish:

Rory McIlroy — Should be a contender. Has the length, the ball striking, and the short game to win anywhere. And with four major victories already, he knows how to win. But he seems to be “streaky.” I think he has it this week and comes close but eventually loses in an epic battle. Finish: Top Five.

Jason Day — Similar qualities to McIlroy and with a better recent track record. He’s world number one and with that driving 2-iron he was hitting 300+ yards at The Players, he could leave driver in the bag all week. There’s no reason to go against him this week, but I will. I think he finishes close behind the winner and Rory from above. Finish: Top Five.

Sergio Garcia — Ball striker, ball striker, ball striker. Got his first Tour victory in almost four years a few weeks ago in Dallas. Still looking for that elusive first major. I don’t think he gets it this week, but I think he’ll be on the leaderboard. Finish: Top 25.

Bubba Watson — Bubba hasn’t quite accepted the USGA and their punishing setups yet. I’m not sad to say I think that continues this week. Finish: Missed Cut.

Jordan Spieth — Hard to go against someone who hasn’t finished outside the top three in a major since 2014. His win at The Colonial a few weeks ago was a huge post-Masters screw-up victory. I just don’t think his ball striking has been there lately. And Oakmont isn’t a place to find it. I think he’ll be there on the weekend, but barely. Finish: Top 60.

Adam Scott — Was hot earlier this year but has cooled off a bit lately. He’s still number one in strokes gained tee to green. And I think he has the qualities to play a U.S. Open well. Look for his name on Saturday and Sunday. Finish: Top 15.

Lastly, and I hate to put it on paper and jinx it, but I’m going to go with golf’s dream scenario and pick Phil Mickelson to complete his personal Grand Slam and win the 116th US Open.

He hasn’t won in a while, but his stats this year are great: Top five in ball striking and putting. His course knowledge and personal desire to win are probably tops in the entire field. And a Sunday battle between Phil, Jason Day and Rory would be one for the ages. It might be more sentimental than anything, but I’m picking Lefty for an emotional Father’s Day victory.

As always, don’t put too much stock into these picks as I’m rarely correct.

Then again, there is that whole “law of averages” thing.

Jonah Karzmer is a former golf professional who writes a Sunday golf column for The Vindicator. In his spare time he sells commercial insurance and loves getting feedback on his weekly columns via email at Jonah@thekarzmerinsurance.com.