Karzmer: Longshot figures to win PGA title

With the condensed schedule jamming all of these majors in a short time span, I’ve missed sharing my picks for the British Open and PGA Championship. By the time this is printed, we should already have a pretty good idea on just how smart this column will be.

Unlike past majors where I’ve identified one winner, I’m going to change it up for this PGA Championship and give a broader pick: I think a longshot is going to win this tournament.

Starting with the U.S. Open last month, and ending with this week’s PGA, the world’s best players will have played three majors and one WGC (the Bridgestone at Firestone) in a span of a few weeks. I think that’s a lot, even with private jets and while playing for millions of dollars.

Also, I’ve gone back and looked at the major winners over the last five years… We’re due for a longshot.

Think back to 2003. Mike Weir, Jim Furyk, Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel won that year’s majors. Now compare that to the last five years. The biggest “longshot” I found was way back in 2011 when Webb Simpson won the U.S. Open at Olympic Club. And even then Webb was ranked as one of the top players in the world.

To be honest, I think we’ve witnessed an “opposite” Tiger Woods effect over the last eight years. From 2000-08, I honestly believe the top players felt like, even on their best days, they’d have a hard time beating Tiger. But look at what’s happened since Tiger’s disappearance. The top ranked players have pretty much dominated the majors.

Professional sports psychologists could probably identify the “why” better than I can. And there’s no true way of measuring this, but my opinion is today’s top players truly “believe” they can win a major more than the top players during Woods’ heyday.

So why go against the trend this week and pick a longshot?

I just think it’s a perfect storm. Some players may be mentally and physically drained (Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth perhaps). Some players are looking ahead to the Olympics (Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, etc.). And some players have recently gotten their first major win and may have a hard time following it up with a quick second (how about the last four in a row; Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Danny Willet and Jason Day for example).

Now obviously, there will be some big names on the leaderboard. I expect Matt Kuchar to play well. And hopefully Mickelson with some good memories, both from last week and from his winning the PGA the last time it was hosted at Baltusrol in 2005. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone change their career trajectory with a surprise win this week.

A few names to throw out there; Branden Grace, J.B. Holmes, Daniel Berger, Roberto Castro, Jhonattan Vegas (he’s hot!), and Emiliano Grillo.

Sorry for the jinx guys, just going with my gut!

Jonah Karzmer is a former golf professional who writes a Sunday golf column for The Vindicator. In his spare time he sells commercial insurance and loves getting feedback on his weekly columns via email at jonah@thekarzmerinsurance.com.