Clinton campaign is in familiar territory

Associated Press

WASHINGTON

Recall this 2008 story line: Hillary Clinton enters the presidential campaign as the Democratic front-runner, runs into an inspirational candidate who generates big crowds and enthusiasm. And she winds up in a dogfight in Iowa.

Sound familiar? With 10 days left before Iowa’s lead-off caucuses, Clinton finds herself in a heated contest against insurgent rival Bernie Sanders reminiscent of her 2008 face-off with then-Sen. Barack Obama. The Vermont senator has soared to a nip-and-tuck race in Iowa and holds an advantage in New Hampshire, putting Clinton back on the brink in her second presidential bid.

Clinton lost Iowa in 2008, a setback that she never fully recovered from against Obama, who went on to win the White House. This time she hopes a larger field organization in Iowa and an escalation of her critiques of Sanders’ record and message might undercut his momentum.

Yet there may be a silver lining for Clinton’s 2016 campaign: Unlike Obama, Sanders is a self-described “democratic socialist” and has done little to expand his support beyond white liberal voters who populate the first two presidential contests. Clinton has locked down nearly all of the establishment support – governors, members of Congress and Democratic leaders – who can help her in a lengthy primary.

And, for now, the former secretary of state has an advantage in a series of Southern-heavy primaries and caucuses after Iowa and New Hampshire. The question is whether that edge vanishes if Sanders defeats Clinton in the first two contests, a distinct possibility.

“Bernie’s appeal is powerful and it resonates with a certain lane of the Democratic electorate for sure, young voters, independent voters,” said Steve McMahon, a Democratic strategist who advised Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign. “But it’s ultimately not a winning general election message; it’s a protest message. It’s difficult to see it grow to the point it becomes a real threat to Secretary Clinton’s campaign.”

Clinton led in Iowa throughout the fall and into December, but polls released this month have depicted a much tighter race against Sanders. At campaign stops, Clinton has ramped up her criticism of Sanders, questioning the practicality of his agenda to provide universal health care, his voting record on gun control and his foreign policy credentials.

Her campaign has seized upon Sanders’ suggestions that the U.S. should normalize relations with Iran, saying it makes him an outlier compared with Obama and Clinton. Driving the foreign policy message, Clinton released a new ad Friday, in which the narrator says, “She’s the one leader who has what it takes to get every part of the job done.”

Though less provocative, it offers parallels to Clinton’s “3 a.m.” ad against Obama, which asked voters who they would want to answer the early morning phone call to respond to a global challenge.