Conventional Republican leadership accepts potential victories for unconventional candidates

Associated Press

HOLLIS, N.H.

After months of predicting a comeback for their preferred candidates, Republican establishment leaders now concede the first two contests of the presidential race, in Iowa and New Hampshire early next month, are Donald Trump's and Ted Cruz's to lose.

That leaves many GOP traditionalists, who fear each candidate would be a disaster in the November general election, pinning their White House hopes on a feat no Republican has pulled off in modern political history: securing the nomination without winning at least one of the first two states on the calendar.

It's a risky strategy at best, and party officials are hoping that weaker candidates will drop out before the South Carolina primary that follows New Hampshire, allowing voters to more easily coalesce behind an alternative to the billionaire real estate mogul and the Texas senator.

"I don't know how they can convince themselves that they'll be able to go into South Carolina and get something going, having come in a distant third, fourth, fifth place in Iowa and New Hampshire," said Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican operative. "Especially when you will have two candidates who have been very strong."

Trump and Cruz are atop the field in Iowa, where voters caucus Feb. 1. Preference polls find Trump with a commanding lead in New Hampshire, which votes Feb. 9, and Cruz in the mix for second place.

The nine others in Republicans race are fighting to emerge from the pack; there's little sign anyone will drop out before voting begins.

Among them are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Each is competing for the same pool of center-right voters.

Allies of Bush and Kasich in New Hampshire have been trading phone calls in recent weeks, trying to gauge each other's thinking about staying in the race. Campaign officials say they have felt no direct pressure from party leaders to drop out before the first two contests.

But there's open discussion about the need for some of the more conventional candidates to drop out after New Hampshire votes on Feb. 9.

"We shouldn't have a whole lotta folks running," said Henry Barbour, a Republican national committeeman from Mississippi. "The ones who don't do well need to get out of the stinkin' race."

Voters, too, appear increasingly ready for the field to narrow.

"Normally by now a bunch of people would have dropped out," said Milt Janosky, a 74-year-old retiree at a Bush town hall in his hometown of Hollis, New Hampshire.

Karen Whitham, a 72-year-old from West Des Moines, Iowa, said of the field: "Some of them should just drop out. Some of them don't have a chance and they know it."