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Gov. Kasich faces an uphill climb to GOP nomination for president
On the side
The Community Mobilization Coalition of Greater Youngstown is sponsoring a candidates forum Monday, starting at 6:30 p.m., at the New Bethel Baptist Church, 1507 Hillman St. in Youngstown. All candidates running for local office in the March 15 primary have been invited to attend the public event. Nearly all of the candidates are running unopposed in the primary.
During his recent endorsement interview with The Vindicator, I asked Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld, who is running in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, what senators he admired. At the top of the list is U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Cleveland Democrat who is backing Sittenfeld’s primary opponent, ex-Gov. Ted Strickland. Despite not having Brown’s support, Sittenfeld said, “I still look at him as a mentor.”
Sittenfeld also said there are “crop of young senators” he admires including Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and Brian Schatz of Hawaii. All are in their 40s.
Leading to the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s campaign sent numerous emails to the media and supporters touting poll after poll – 13 when all was said and done – that had him finishing in second place.
That’s exactly where he finished so it’s rather odd that Kasich said he “shocked everybody” coming in second place.
Kasich’s entire presidential campaign hinged on a strong showing in New Hampshire where he had more than 100 town-hall meetings and likely spent more time there in the two or three weeks leading up to the primary than in Ohio.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had a similar New Hampshire-saturation strategy but finished a distant sixth and is out of the running for the Republican race for president.
Ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush also had the same strategy, and spent a ridiculous amount of money in New Hampshire. He finished in fourth, but because he’s flush with cash, Jeb! is remaining in the race. His campaign, which tanked the moment billionaire businessman Donald Trump got into the race, is now focused on South Carolina and that state’s GOP primary on Feb. 20.
His campaign also is in serious denial about New Hampshire.
“Gov. Bush is the only governor coming out of New Hampshire with a real path forward to the nomination and the ability to beat Hillary Clinton in the fall,” Allie Brandenburger, a Bush campaign spokeswoman, wrote in an email. “Gov. Bush has the momentum coming out of New Hampshire and ahead of the South Carolina primary. Leaders in the March primary states agree, Gov. Bush is the proven conservative in the race with a national organization built for the long haul.”
Bush also seems obsessed with criticizing Kasich.
If Bush and his Super PAC didn’t have so much money, a poor showing in South Carolina should end his presidential campaign. But it won’t.
While there hasn’t been a recent poll of South Carolina Republicans, ones taken a month ago have Trump with a commanding lead, Bush in fourth and Kasich so far behind at 2 percent that Christie is ahead of him and the Ohio governor is tied with two former candidates – U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Kasich is obviously excited with the second-place finish in New Hampshire, but if you take a closer look, he should be concerned.
Trump easily won the primary with 35.3 percent of the vote while barely campaigning in the Granite State in comparison with Kasich, Bush and Christie. That’s more than twice Kasich’s 15.8 percent. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, the winner of the Iowa caucus, finished in third with 11.7 percent, followed by Bush with 11 percent.
Whatever momentum Kasich’s campaign picked up in New Hampshire isn’t going to follow him to South Carolina despite him being there since Wednesday.
There hasn’t been a national poll taken since Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, but ones taken last week has Kasich in sixth place – last among the remaining Republican presidential candidates.
Kasich was at 4 percent last week compared to 29.5 percent for Trump, who finished second in Iowa, won New Hampshire and is the frontrunner in South Carolina.
The Nevada caucus follows on Feb. 23, and it’s doubtful Kasich will do well there.
Of greater importance is Super Tuesday, March 1, when there will be 14 states with Republican primaries or caucuses. Kasich’s strength appears to be in the Midwest. The only Midwest state voting March 1 is Minnesota. Kasich has the endorsement of Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley and that state’s primary is on March 1.
With only six Republican candidates remaining, Kasich doesn’t have to worry about getting lost in the crowd.
But he’s likely going to struggle until March 8 when the Michigan primary is held.
And what is to happen on March 15? If he’s still in the race, Kasich will easily win Ohio.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is there are more delegates up for grabs in winner-take-all primaries in Florida – the home of Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio – as well as in North Carolina and Illinois. Kasich will likely need wins in North Carolina or Illinois, preferably both. While it’s hard to project what will happen a month from now, it looks like a major uphill struggle for Kasich to capture his party’s presidential nomination.