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Polls show Strickland trails Portman in Senate race
YOUNGSTOWN
Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, admits he’s losing to incumbent Republican Rob Portman by about 4 or 5 percentage points, but said, “I feel good about that.”
Answering his own follow-up question as to why, Strickland said, “They’ve spent massive amounts of money against me, and I’ve been able to hold my own without any costly pushback on my part.”
This likely will be the most-expensive Senate race in the state’s history, and among the most costly in the nation.
Between $33 million and $37 million already has been spent by Portman and his supporters.
Though Portman’s eight different television spots – which started running in June – have all been positive about himself, the special-interest groups have hit Strickland hard, particularly on his four years as governor but also during his time in the U.S. House.
Portman committed $14 million to TV, and his campaign’s fundraising efforts are among the best of anyone running for the Senate this year, through the Nov. 8 election.
Strickland just went on TV this past Wednesday with a buy of about $1 million in Cleveland, Columbus, Youngstown and Toledo. He said he will be on TV through the Nov. 8 election. Strickland previously had reserved $8 million between shortly after Labor Day to Election Day.
Strickland has struggled to raise money in this campaign and had about $3.75 million in his campaign fund as of June 30, the most-recent filing date.
“I will have the resources needed to do what I need to do to win this race,” Strickland said. “I feel very confident about that.”
Corry Bliss, Portman’s campaign manager, said, “I find it hard to believe he’ll be able to fulfill that commitment,” and, “It’s laughable to say they’ll be on TV from now until the election.”
Strickland’s supporters have “spent about $15 million on pure negative ads against Rob Portman, and it’s had no effect,” Bliss said.
Strickland is dismissive of a Qunnipiac University Poll that came out Thursday showing him trailing Portman 49 percent to 40 percent. The first poll in this race in April 2015 had the Democrat up 48 percent to 39 percent. That’s an 18-percentage-point swing in 16 months.
“The early-polling advantage in favor of Ted Strickland was fool’s gold,” Bliss said. “This race is very simple. When people are reminded of Ted Strickland’s record, they simply will not vote for him.”
Two other recent polls have Portman up by 5 percentage points, while another has Portman up by 4 percent. RealClearPolitics.com, a website that aggregates polling data, has Portman up by 6.4 percent.
Strickland said his TV commercial campaign is a game-changer.
“They’re spending this money and they haven’t taken me out,” he said. “I’m going to be fighting back in the remaining months in a way I haven’t been able to up to this point. My ad is the first positive message that the people of Ohio have heard from me in this entire race.”
David Bergstein, Strickland’s campaign spokesman, added: “Polls will go up and down. The Quinnipiac poll looks like an outlier, and the most-recent survey of definite voters had this race within 3 points. But what all the polls consistently show is that after Sen. Portman and his allies have spent over $30 million against Ted, they’ve failed to put this race away. With the start of our paid communications we’re entering the stage of the campaign where more Ohioans will start learning about the central contrast in this race.”
Bliss said, “We’re running a targeted campaign. If the race is about Rob’s record vs. Ted’s record, Ted simply cannot win.”
Both sides agree there are tremendous differences between the two candidates.
Portman’s campaign points to Strickland’s record as governor during the Great Recession.
“When Ted Strickland was governor, Ohio lost more than 350,000 jobs and ranked 48th in job creation – and people remember that,” Bliss said.
Portman’s campaign also said Strickland changed when he became the head of the liberal Center for American Progress Action Fund, an organization that doesn’t back coal. Strickland insists he hasn’t changed his pro-coal position, but the United Mine Workers, the nation’s largest coal union and longtime supporters of the Democrat, endorsed Portman.
Strickland points to Portman’s track record of backing free-trade agreements the Democrat says have hurt the state’s manufacturing base.
Strickland also repeatedly has tied the incumbent to Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee. Some Republicans – including Ohio Gov. John Kasich – won’t back Trump, others have done so reluctantly and then there are those such as Portman. Portman has criticized some of the more-outrageous statements from Trump, but continues to support him and says he is the best candidate for president.
Portman is “engulfed in a daily firestorm about this continued support for Trump, and he’s facing a statewide coordinated campaign infrastructure with no help from the top of the ticket,” Bergstein said.
He also said, “Portman’s campaign is running on a fantasy strategy.”
Portman’s campaign has worked to court Democratic voters.
“We are pointing out Rob’s record and achievements to voters,” Bliss said. “The point of any campaign is to get the support of as many voters as possible.”
But Strickland’s campaign says ticket-splitting is a strategy that hasn’t proved to be successful. The last time Ohioans selected a senator and president from different parties was in 1988.
Polls show the presidential race between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are close, with the latter having a small lead.
If that doesn’t change, neither Senate candidate will gain any help from the top of the ticket.
After the attacks from Portman’s backers, Strickland said, “The real story is they have spent these massive amounts of money against me and they haven’t taken me out of contention for this race.”
There is no indication, however, the attack ads against Strickland will go away.
Quite the contrary.
Fight for Ohio Fund PAC, a pro-Portman group, announced Friday it was spending $1.4 million statewide on a response to Strickland’s new ad in which he makes no mention he was governor.
And there’s no indication that outside groups will step away from what both candidates say is the most-important Senate race in the country, and one that could decide which political party has the majority in that legislative body.