Exec predicts decrease in scripted TV shows

By Lynn Elber

AP Television Writer

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif.

Television viewers know there’s a mind-boggling array of shows to attempt to watch. John Landgraf, the chief executive of FX Networks, predicted change is coming but not until the number of scripted series peaks at about 500 per year.

With a greater supply of U.S. television than can be profitably produced, the industry is “ballooning into a condition of oversupply” that will likely peak in the next two years and then slowly deflate, Landgraf told a TV critics meeting Tuesday.

“I’m not saying that I believe we are in a bubble which is going to pop, causing us to go from 500-plus scripted series to half that number,” he said, but could dip to 400 or slightly fewer.

Scripted shows premiering this year should reach about 450 for broadcast, cable and streaming services and near or exceed 500 in 2017, in contrast to his expectation that it would peak this year, he said.

Landgraf did a big-picture assessment of the expanding TV landscape last year, focusing increased attention on a world that’s moved far beyond the once-true saying that there’s hundreds of channels and nothing worth watching. This has been characterized as a second “golden age” of TV, but the FX executive said even that is at risk because of the volume of shows.

A key driver in the streaming sector is Netflix, which Landgraf said has premiered or announced 71 scripted series, a number he said excludes documentary, late-night or non-English language shows.

By comparison, broadcast networks including NBC, ABC and CBS air about 150 scripted series; pay cable is at 50 and basic cable at 180, according to FX’s tally.

Why Netflix is making “such an extraordinary number of shows, I really can’t tell you,” Landgraf said. Although he carefully avoided characterizing how the streaming service manages its level of production, he described the FX approach as a “non-industrial, extremely personal way” of making series, yielding between 17 to 22 a year.

He did say Netflix takes a “secretive” approach to its business model. The streaming service resolutely avoids releasing viewership numbers.

Audiences overall are having trouble distinguishing the “great from the merely competent,” he said. But there is an upside for “storytellers,” the writers and producers who are finding more work, and for networks like his that take chances on showcasing new voices, he said.