Retaking IS-held Mosul likely to be tricky, costly for Iraq

Associated Press

BAGHDAD

It promises to be the biggest and perhaps last major battle against the Islamic State group in Iraq.

Iraq’s government is setting its sights on Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city that has been under IS control since June 2014, as its next major target. The assault is probably months away, but fierce fighting already has been raging as Iraqi forces try to clear the militants from villages and towns south of the city.

The goal is to protect the Qayara air base, which was recaptured from the militants July 9 and is to be a main hub for the final move on Mosul. Some 560 U.S. military personnel, mainly engineers and logistics, security and communications experts, are due to be deployed at the base to upgrade its facilities in preparation for the Mosul attacks, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

But that can’t happen yet because Qayara base has come under frequent rocket fire. About two-thirds of the surrounding towns and villages are controlled by IS fighters. Iraqi forces need to clear a 12-mile radius around the base and to retake the key nearby towns of Qayara and Shirqat, several Iraqi military officials told The Associated Press.

Iraqi forces already have driven the Islamic State group out of the cities of Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit and Beiji west and north of the Iraqi capital, rolling back the jihadis’ dramatic blitz in summer 2014 that captured nearly a third of the country and linked up with their territory in neighboring Syria.

Retaking Mosul would be far more significant, robbing the IS of the jewel of its self-declared caliphate. While the Syrian city of Raqqa is considered the caliphate’s de facto capital, Mosul is the largest city under its control, with an estimated population of between 500,000 and 1 million. IS fighters in Mosul, meanwhile, vary from a few thousand to “not more than 10,000,” according to the coalition.

But the presence of hundreds of thousands of civilians in Mosul raises the prospect of a flood of people joining tens of thousands still displaced by previous fighting. The Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross said Friday that up to 1 million Iraqis could be forced to flee their homes in the coming weeks amid worsening fighting. Robert Mardini, the group’s regional director for the Near and Middle East, said it is preparing for the worst, particularly in the Mosul area.

A glimpse of the possible humanitarian crisis has emerged. Nearly 4,000 families have fled their homes to escape fighting around the towns of Qayara and Shirqat. The government plans to house them in the town of Beiji, to the south.

“The government is not prepared or equipped to deal with a humanitarian emergency,” said Iraqi analyst Hisham al-Hashimi.

Iraqi officials estimate that upgrading the Qayara base could take four to six weeks, once the area around it is secured. Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, the top U.S. commander in the fight against IS, said this month that the U.S. personnel have already received warning orders to deploy and will flow in “relatively soon.”