Despite improvements, region's population still declining

By DAVID SKOLNICK

skolnick@vindy.com

YOUNGSTOWN

The Mahoning, Trumbull and Mercer counties region had the 12th- highest percentage population decline among metropolitan areas in the nation between the 2010 census and the July 2014 estimate.

It continues a trend that sees people leaving the area.

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show the three-county region — referred to by the agency as the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman Metropolitan Statistical Area — lost 2.21 percent of its population during that time frame.

MSAs are considered by the bureau to have at least one core urban area of at least 50,000 residents.

“You look in the newspaper at the number of births and the number of deaths, and this doesn’t surprise me,” said Youngstown Mayor John A. McNally. “We’re not seeing the number of births be more than the number of deaths. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a continuous drop in future years.”

At the top of the list among MSAs in the country in terms of percentage of population decline is Pine Bluff, Ark., at 5.53 percent, followed by Farmington, N.M., at 4.81 percent.

Overall, only 72 of the 381 metro areas lost population between the 2010 census and the 2014 estimate.

The Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA has seen a consistent annual decline.

The 2010 census had the population of this region at 565,804. It dropped to 562,874 in July 2011, 558,973 in July 2012, 556,129 in 2013, and 553,263 in July 2014. That’s an estimated loss of 12,541 people in the three counties in four years.

“It still hasn’t bottomed out,” said Ronald K. Chordas, executive director of Youngstown State University’s Center for Urban and Regional Studies.

“Unless we create some new businesses, industries to attract more people” it will further decrease.

The U.S. Census Bureau provides annual population estimates using birth and death records, and migration data.

This can sometimes lead to inaccurate counts.

In addition to MSAs, the bureau provided estimates for counties today.

Estimates for cities with populations of at least 50,000 are expected later this year.

The bureau provided raw numbers, which The Vindicator used to determine percentage changes for each MSA and county.

Trumbull County’s population declined from 210,312 in the 2010 census to 205,175 in the 2014 estimate. That’s a 2.44 percent decline — the fourth- highest among Ohio’s 88 counties.

Mahoning County’s population dropped from 238,823 in the 2010 census to 233,204 in the 2014 estimate. Mahoning’s 2.35 percent decline is the sixth-highest among Ohio’s counties.

The population of Columbiana County — which isn’t included in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman region — declined by 2 percent from 107,841 in the 2010 census to 105,686 in the 2014 estimate.

Among Ohio’s 88 counties, Columbiana had the 11th- highest percentage decline.

The Ohio county with the largest percentage population decline between 2010 and 2014 is Crawford in the north-central portion of the state. Its population declined by 2.98 percent.

In Ohio, 45 of its 88 counties saw a decline in population between 2010 and 2014.

Mercer County in Pennsylvania — part of the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA — saw a 1.5 percent decline in its population from 116,638 in the 2010 census to 114,884 in the 2014 estimate.

That is the 14th-largest percentage decline among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties.

Lawrence County in Pennsylvania, not part of the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA, had a population decline from 91,108 in 2010 to 88,771 in 2014.

The 2.57 percent drop is the fourth most for a Pennsylvania county.