Netanyahu’s victory in Israel dampens prospects for peace

We begin this editorial ABOUT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s election win with the same question we posed earlier this month regarding his firm opposition to any agreement on Iran’s nuclear program: “Now what?”

Those two words reflect the dilemma the United States and other nations find themselves in as they attempt to not only persuade Iran to give up on the idea of developing nuclear weapons, but to forge a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

However, Netanyahu’s rejection of the negotiations taking place between Iran and the U.S. and five other nations has literally pulled the rug out from under the Obama White House. The fact that the Israeli leader went before the U.S. Congress to scold President Barack Obama underscored the tension that exists between the two leaders.

That tension promises to get even more pronounced in the wake of Netanyahu’s stunning victory Tuesday in his re-election bid. We say stunning because the polls had consistently shown the race to be a toss-up between the incumbent’s Likud Party and its main challenger, the Zionist Party led by Issac Herzog, a former Israeli president.

The conservative Likud Party captured at least 30 seats in the Knesset, to 24 for the center-left Zionist Party. The remaining 66 seats in the parliament went to other parties, which means that Netanyahu will have to form a coalition with others who share his conservative views about Israel’s future in order to govern.

FLIP FLOPS ON STATEHOOD

It is noteworthy that the prime minister had set the stage for his governing coalition when he announced just before election day that there would not be a Palestinian state so long as he is in office, and that the construction of Israeli settler homes would continue. Given that Netanyahu agreed in 2009 to the Palestinians having their own state, his initial change in position turned the entire peace process on its head.

Political observers suggested that he adopted such extreme positions because his re-election bid was in trouble and that he would change his stance once he had a ruling majority.

Indeed Netanyahu backpedaled earlier than expected just two days ago, saying he now would not oppose Palestinian statehood if conditions in the region improve. Few political analysts, however, expect that new change of heart to stick.

The reality of a coalition government is that it is only as strong as the ties that bind it. The prime minister likely will have to stand firm on the positions he took during the campaign in order to remain in power.

Israel’s president, Reuven Rivlin, has the responsibility of selecting who will get to form the next government, the incumbent or Herzog. Rivlin has said he would like to see the two leaders join forces, but that is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Paying off

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s hard line with regard to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and a Palestinian state is paying off at home and in the United States.

He has endeared himself to the Republican majority in Congress — he was invited to speak to the joint session by House Speaker John Boehner — because of his public repudiation of President Obama over the negotiations with Iran.

With his election victory and his wavering over a Palestinian state, Netanyahu has endeared himself to conservatives in this country.

Thus, the ramifications of the election in Israel prompts the question, “Now what?”

The only thing that’s certain is that peace in the Middle East is as elusive as ever.