Can Clinton stop the implosion?

The storm over Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email account while secretary of state is a useful reminder of the unpredictability of presidential campaigns and the way unexpected events can impact the outcome as much as the underlying fundamentals.

In this case, it’s also a reminder of Clinton’s less appealing aspects. A tendency toward secrecy and questionable ethics have long exemplified both Clintons and earned her presidential husband the derisive sobriquet of “Slick Willie.”

One Democratic critic, former South Carolina Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian, predicted Clinton’s seemingly inevitable candidacy will “die by 1,000 cuts” over this and similar issues likely to surface in the next year. There’s a history of Democratic presidential “sure things” collapsing along the nominating path; Democratic Sen. Edmund Muskie’s bid cratered after an emotional outburst in 1972, Sen. Edward Kennedy’s inability to provide a rationale foreshadowed his disastrous run in 1980, and Clinton herself failed in 2008.

Clinton’s quest

But that seems far less likely in 2016, given all Clinton has going for her in her quest to become the nation’s first female president and the lack of a likely competitive Democratic alternative. Without question, she begins as the strongest non-incumbent within memory. The Democratic Party is essentially united behind her, she can raise endless amounts of money, her resume is more extensive than potential rivals, and her experience from 2008 should stand her in good stead.

Still, there have already been signs that many Americans would prefer a choice other than another Clinton or another Bush. But there are indications, most recently in an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, that will be more of a handicap for Jeb Bush than Clinton.

When George W. Bush ran in 2000, most Republicans had warm feelings toward his presidential father, recalling how he successfully managed the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany. That and the fact the younger Bush surrounded himself with many of the father’s advisers contributed to his narrow victory over Democrat Al Gore.

But now, voters are indicating that they see Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, less as his father’s son than as his brother’s brother. That’s not helpful, given fresh memories of George W. Bush’s disastrous intervention in Iraq, what many Republicans regard as his administration’s overspending on domestic programs and the onset of the Great Recession during his watch.

By contrast, many voters associate Bill Clinton with his continuing popularity and the good economic times during his presidency more than his ethical peccadillos and even his impeachment. At the same time, Hillary Clinton seems likely to benefit from the country’s continuing demographic diversification, which prominent Republican analyst Whit Ayres said recently poses a big barrier toward a GOP victory in 2016.

In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney “won every significant white group . often by overwhelming margins,” only to lose the election by 5 million votes because Barack Obama “achieved breathtaking majorities among every other racial group,” Ayres wrote in The Wall Street Journal. “Unfortunately, for Republicans,” he added, “the math is only going to get worse,” as the proportion of white voters continues declining. Republicans can’t win “unless they nominate a transformational candidate who can dramatically broaden the GOP’s appeal,” he wrote. Calling Clinton “a more attractive candidate than Obama among whites in culturally conservative regions,” he said the former secretary of state could even win with less of the nonwhite vote than John Kerry polled in 2004.

Demographic challenge

Those numbers pose a formidable demographic challenge for Republicans.

On the other hand, Clinton has shown herself more mistake-prone than someone with her experience should be. There’s no guarantee that won’t continue, and the email incident has further emboldened GOP critics using their latest Benghazi investigation as a political weapon against her.

In the end, the 2016 election may depend on whether Hillary Clinton can control her self-defeating tendencies to ensure the triumph of the superior demographics buoying her candidacy.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.