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Democrat Gentile considers run in GOP-strong 6th Congressional District
On the side
As is tradition, I’ll be at the Austintown Fourth of July Parade on Saturday. It is, by far, my favorite political event.
There’s something funny to me about politicians running down the street trying to say hello to people who are only interested in what candy they have.
Of course, I’m one of those people.
Politicians should know I largely judge the quality of the person by the quality of the candy they throw at the parade.
If you’re giving away Dum Dum Pops, Peppermint Starlights, butterscotch or those nasty blue mint hard candies, I may smile, but know inside I think less of you. I’m just kidding, sort of.
However, if you’re giving away Now and Laters, Starbursts, Laffy Taffy, Twizzlers or Tootsie Rolls, you’re likely an astute and intelligent person worthy of important public service.
Seriously, the parade is a lot of fun – even if you get stuck shaking hands with sweaty politicians.
I will be near the Greenbriar stone sign, which is also the first traffic light on the route after the starting location. If you’re walking in the parade, that’s on the left side.
In late May 2013, two Democrats – former state Rep. Jennifer Garrison, who ended up being the party’s nominee, and state Sen. Lou Gentile, who would drop out – were gathering support to run for the 6th Congressional District seat in 2014.
Garrison was recruited by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to take on U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson, a Republican seeking his third two-year term who national Democrats saw as vulnerable and beatable. On July 11, 2013, Garrison told me she was in the race. Three weeks later, Gentile said he was out.
Johnson beat Garrison by 19.7 percentage points in the 2014 election. That’s a huge margin of victory, but it was by far the closest congressional race in Ohio last year.
It showed that Republicans did a masterful job of redrawing congressional district lines to make 12 House seats solid GOP districts and the remaining four strong Democratic seats.
SOLID GRIP ON THE 6TH
It also shows that Johnson has a solid hold over the 6th District. In the 2012 election, Johnson beat Democrat Charlie Wilson by 6.6 percentage points. In 2010, Johnson beat Wilson, then the incumbent who has since died, by 5 percentage points before redistricting made the 6th District a lot less competitive. With each election, Johnson is winning by larger percentages despite facing politically experienced Democratic candidates.
Despite Johnson’s strength as a candidate, Gentile said he may challenge the Republican in next year’s election.
With the state budget process complete, Gentile – the assistant minority whip serves on the Senate Finance Committee – said he can now focus on politics.
“I haven’t made any final decisions; all options are open,” he said. “There is a lot of time to still make a decision. We haven’t hit the point of no return. I have received encouragement from state and local Democratic leaders to run for Congress as well as citizens who are Democrats, Republicans and independents.”
But looking at the time line of what happened in the 2014 election, Gentile needs to make a decision on running for the U.S. House seat pretty soon.
STRICKLAND, CLINTON IMPACT
Gentile said the poor showing by Democrats in Ohio and nationwide last year “was such an anomaly. It doesn’t translate into a president election year when turnout is significantly greater.”
Gentile said having ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, “my friend and mentor,” running next year for the U.S. Senate, and Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats’ presidential candidate, makes it tempting to seek the congressional seat.
It doesn’t matter whether Gentile runs for Congress or seeks re-election to the state Senate as he’ll be in a fight either way.
He was the Republicans’ top target in the 2012 state Senate race with the GOP spending close to $1 million. Gentile raised $800,000 and won by 4.8 percentage points in a district that went strongly in favor of Republicans in the presidential and U.S. Senate races in 2012. He’ll be at the top of the list of state Senate Democratic incumbents that the Republicans will look to defeat.
“I expect if I run for Senate, I’ll have over $1 million,” Gentile said.
He’ll need to double that to be competitive with Johnson. The Republican incumbent received $2.2 million in contributions to beat Garrison, who came up just shy of raising $1 million for the 2014 race. However, Garrison gave her campaign about half of the money and the national Democratic funding she expected never showed up. Gentile should also anticipate no help from national Democrats should he challenge Johnson.
GEOGRAPHICALLY SPEAKING
All but one of the 10 counties in Gentile’s state Senate district are in the 18-county 6th Congressional District. The 6th includes all of Columbiana County and eight townships in Mahoning County. (Gentile’s district doesn’t include those two counties, but has political allies in both and represented Columbiana for a brief time.)
At this point, Gentile sounds like he’s leaning toward seeking re-election to the state Senate. But if the political landscape shows 2016 to be a good year for Democrats in Ohio, Gentile could opt to run for Congress. With an early March 15 primary next year – Ohio’s primary in nonpresidential years is in May – the filing deadline is also early: Dec. 16.
Realistically, Gentile is the only candidate the Democrats have who has a chance to be competitive against Johnson, who’d be seeking a fourth term next year. And even that looks like an uphill battle.
David Skolnick is The Vindicator’s political reporter.