Valley unemployment numbers reveal mixed meanings

By Kalea Hall

khall@vindy.com

YOUNGSTOWN

Mahoning Valley data released Tuesday show a 2.3 percent decrease in unemployment from December 2013 to December 2014.

But it also shows a decrease in the civilian labor force of 6,000, which includes retired workers, discouraged workers and others who left the labor force for various reasons.

“The good news is unemployment is down,” said George Zeller, a Cleveland-based economist.

But Zeller said the drop in the labor force is the “principal reason” why the Valley’s nonseasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 7.4 percent in December 2013 to 5.1 percent in December 2014.

In November 2014, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent for the Mahoning Valley (Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties).

“That is not good news at all,” Zeller said. “Why should a decline in the labor force be considered a good thing?”

The Valley’s civilian labor force dropped from 260,000 in December 2013 to 254,000 in December 2014. The number of unemployed dropped from 19,300 to 13,100.

Employment increased from 240,300 to 240,900.

Individually, Mahoning County’s unemployment rate dropped from 7.6 percent in December 2013 to 5.2 percent in December 2014. Trumbull County’s rate went down from a 7.5 percent to 5.1 percent. And Columbiana County’s fell from 7 percent to 5.1 percent.

Ohio’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate released last Friday was 4.8 percent, down from 5 percent in November 2014. The U.S. unemployment rate for December was 5.6 percent.

Ohio’s nonfarm wage and salary employment increased 5,100 over the month, from a revised 5,325,300 in November to 5,330,400 in December. The number of workers unemployed in Ohio in December was 278,000, down 9,000 from November. The civilian labor force in the state saw a drop of 2,000 from November to December and drop of 20,000 year over year.

“We are still recovering, but we did not recover as much as those unemployment rates imply,” Zeller said.

Mekael Teshome, economist for PNC Bank, also said the unemployment number should be higher, but there is positive news in that the area has gained jobs.

“We have had a decade of decline and now we are starting to stabilize,” Teshome said.

Teshome, like Zeller, is concerned about the loss in the civilian labor force, but he said it is important to remember this area has an older population.

“What I am expecting for 2015 is a continued steady growth in the region,” he said.

George Mokrzan, director of economics for Huntington National Bank, saw the 5.1 percent unemployment rate in conjunction with the decrease in unemployment and the employment increase as a positive reflection of the economy.

“It means that most people who want to get a job got a job,” he said.

Bert Cene, director of the Mahoning Columbiana Training Association, which administers both counties’ One-Stop programs and specializes in workforce development, has job orders coming in but not enough skilled workers to fill those positions.

The association offers workforce grants for those in need of the training required to take a skilled position.

“We are trying to be the buffer out there to fill those positions,” Cene said. “We are reaching out. We are talking to different groups and letting them know there is a need out there.”