Who will take home an Oscar?

IF YOU WATCH

What: The 87th Academy Awards

Where: ABC

When: Tonight at 8:30

Associated Press

LOS ANGELES

Ahead of tonight’s 87th Academy Awards, Associated Press film writer Jake Coyle his predictions for a ceremony that could be a nail biter.

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Birdman” comes home to roost despite the landmark accomplishment of “Boyhood.” As a celebration of showbiz, it’s the “Shakespeare in Love” of its time.

Should Win: “Boyhood” marries film and time in a uniquely powerful way, but it’s also worth making a case for Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” the most relentlessly fun and inventive film of the year.

Should Have Been a Contender: “Interstellar.” Christopher Nolan’s epic is unloved, but it’s a glorious sci-fi soup that would have added some big-budget dazzle to the Oscars. I mean, it’s got a fourth dimension.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne. The freckled one appears to be the favorite for his technically impressive performance.

Should Win: Michael Keaton. Redmayne is a talented young actor, but he’s a little precious for a physicist. Keaton has been an electric live-wire for decades.

Should Have Been a Contender: The performance of the year was Timothy Spall’s J.M.W. Turner in “Mr. Turner.” If the Oscars were judged on grunting ability, he’d win in a cakewalk.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice.” A great actress overdue for an Oscar, although the film is forgettable.

Should Win: Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night.” The French actress deserved nods for both this unadorned performance and for the unfairly overlooked “The Immigrant.”

Should Have Been a Contender: Tilda Swinton, “Only Lovers Left Alive.” In Jim Jarmusch’s bitingly funny vampire tale, she’s captivating just walking down a Tangier street. One of cinema’s most exotic creatures.

BEST SUPPORtING ACTOR

Will Win: J.K. Simmons so blows away all other candidates, it’s not even close. Get out of his class!

Should Win: Simmons. A career character actor takes a well-deserved bow.

Should Have Been a Contender: Much was rightly made of Jake Gyllenhaal’s creepy turn in “Nightcrawler,” but the film only works if it has the heart of Riz Ahmed’s trusty sidekick.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Patricia Arquette is lock for “Boyhood.”

Should Win: Arquette. The best, most-tender scene in “Boyhood” is when Arquette’s character, having raised her kids and watched their “series of milestones” unfold wonders what’s next for her. “I just thought there would be more,” she laments. It’s an unforgettable moment.

Should Have Been a Contender: Every year, countless performances from foreign films go unrewarded, but it feels like a genuine mistake that Agata Kulesza from the Polish film “Ida” didn’t win a nomination. As the bitter, hard-drinking judge Wanda, heavy with Polish history, she’s about as good as it gets.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Like best picture, this comes down to the showy elan of Inarritu’s “Birdman” against the patient humanism of Richard Linklater. I suspect “Birdman” takes picture, leaving director to the Texan.

Should Win: It’s hard to match the brio of Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” the culmination of a trio of top-notch releases for the director after “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “Moonrise Kingdom.”

Should Have Been a Contender: Was David Fincher’s examination of marriage in “Gone Girl” too dark for some academy members? Blood baths in beds will do that. What a shame; this was the most conversation-starting movie of the year, a gender warfare time-bomb.