What’s next for candidate Kasich?

By Darrel Rowland

Columbus Dispatch

He’s traveled to key states, raised a respectable amount of money, built a fledgling organization, pulled off a successful campaign launch and not only qualified for but also earned good reviews at last week’s prime-time GOP presidential debate in Cleveland.

What now for Ohio Gov. John Kasich?

Those inside and outside of the campaign say his effort now must evolve into a new phase since Kasich’s presidential aspirations are being taken seriously across the country.

He will begin traveling to parts of the nation aside from the early voting states that he has emphasized so far. In coming weeks, trips are expected to Virginia, Illinois and through Southern states, as well as return visits to New Hampshire and Iowa, the latter for the state fair.

His team will “staff up” so it has the infrastructure to run a full-fledged national campaign, which means fundraising remains of paramount importance.

And he must buck up for the inevitable scrutiny a major presidential candidate gets by journalists and opposition researchers for both Democrats and fellow Republicans.

Kasich’s remarks during the 15 weeks since his first New Hampshire trip showopenings that hard-core GOP rivals could exploit.

For example, while Kasich strongly opposes the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran – just as the other Republican candidates do – he says he wouldn’t automatically repeal it if he wins the White House. Rather, Kasich says he would closely monitor Iran and be ready to quickly snap sanctions back into place – hopefully along with U.S. allies – if the pact is violated.

In contrast, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker pledges to rip up the agreement, saying in Thursday’s debate, “To me, you terminate the deal on Day One.” And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said in the debate: (“To honor the people that died) we need to stop the Iran agreement, for sure, because the Iranian mullahs have their blood on their hands.”

Kasich opposes the legalization of marijuana in Ohio and other states. But he stops short of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s pledge to vigorously enforce federal marijuana laws, which are now generally ignored in states such as Colorado, where pot has been legalized.

“If you’re getting high in Colorado today, enjoy it,” Christie, a former federal prosecutor, told a New Hampshire town hall in late July. “As of January 2017, I will enforce the federal laws.”

Of course, one of Kasich’s biggest deviations from GOP orthodoxy comes on Obamacare. While Kasich pledges to repeal the law despised by most Republicans, he also backs expanding Medicaid – which is part of Obamacare – noting the program provides health insurance to 500,000 low-income Ohioans. He is sure to face questions on how he would repeal part of the law and keep the rest, as well as about how he would pay for expanding Medicaid without the rest of the Affordable Care Act.

Kasich maintains that Medicaid would be cheaper if the federal government simply gave the money to states through block grants. While perhaps a candidate low in the polls can get away with such a vague explanation, the newly visible Kasich is likely going to have to explain the math at some point.

Both Govs. Christie and Walker were buzzed during the debate about their states’ economic performance under their leadership. That means Kasich may face questions about 2015 reports detailing how Ohio’s wages have stagnated, job-creation rates have remained below the national average for months, infant mortality still is among the nation’s worst, child poverty has increased, and the state education system, in five years, has dropped from 5th-best to 18th-best in the nation.

“I think that the national press is going to start paying more attention. He’s an established candidate now,” said Kyle Kondik, an Ohio native now at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“I think his first few weeks as an official candidate have gone pretty well. ... There are 17 Republican candidates. More than half of them have zero, zero chance of getting the nomination. Kasich is not in that group.”

John Weaver, Kasich’s top campaign strategist, says the team knows what’s coming.

“Entering into the top tier brings more scrutiny,” Weaver said. “This is not bean bag – we get it.”

As Kasich displaces other Republicans, he could become a bigger target, especially of candidates who have been running for months but not getting additional support.

“And when that happens, sometimes desperation seeps in, and the campaigns and candidates start to say things to try to garner attention that is not presidential, it’s sometimes not practical and clearly a lot of times it’s not going to happen,” Weaver said.

Kondik sees that strategy playing out with Kasich.

“I think he’s trying to be the adult in the room. And the adult in the room is not fire and brimstone,” he said. “Kasich is far less bombastic than some of the other candidates. The loudest, brashest voices don’t get nominated, or at least they haven’t in a long time.”

Kondik says Kasich’s “not going to shoot up in the polls” because of his Cleveland debate performance. But with such a long period until the next Republican debate – Sept. 16 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif. – Kasich can concentrate on the grass-roots politics that he does so well.

Kasich himself acknowledged as much in the “spin room” after the debate.

“We just keep pluggin’ ... We’re like the little engine that can,” he said.

“Today I’m popular, maybe tomorrow I won’t be. So you take it a day at a time.”