Dems, GOP on divergent paths to the White House

By Mark Davis

The Dallas Morning News

The Republican and Democratic paths to the 2016 presidential showdown could not be more different from the vantage point of a year and a half out.

Hillary Clinton’s entrance paints a narrative of near-inevitability, suppressing the prospects for a wide and active field vying to maintain a Democratic hold on the White House.

But in Republican Land, in what was supposed to be the Year of the Governor, three first-term U.S. senators have announced before the first state-level executive has a chance to reserve a banquet hall.

Sure, it looks like we’ll get Scott Walker out of Wisconsin, and the Rick Perry political action committee seems focused like a laser beam on announcing, perhaps late next month. But the buzz of the moment surrounds the trio of young rock-star legislators, allies on a host of issues, who have chosen to become rivals for the quest to follow the Obama years with a conservative response.

For Democrats, there are certain comforts in a suspenseless primary battle. The candidate avoids the wounds of expensive and damaging internecine battles while enjoying the luxury of watching the opposition’s circular firing squad at the other end of the battlefield.

This is what we appear to be headed toward, but what if some unexpected events unfold?

What if the Inevitability Express does not mature beyond the absurd first few days of Hillary Clinton’s launch? No riveting announcement event, just a forgettable online video followed by a forlorn caravan across parts of America the candidate would far prefer to see out the window of a private plane. All to get to Iowa, a state where she came in third in 2008.

There is no Barack Obama in her way this time. In fact, there is precisely no one of consequence in her way. Elizabeth Warren (who says she is not running, but I encourage skepticism) is a first-term senator, just like the entire current GOP field, but she needs a complete Hillary meltdown in order be competitive. No one can figure out why former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb are considering running, and against this backdrop, Joe Biden should probably be insulted that no one takes him seriously.

What if this is one of those stories that is upended by the pesky occasional tendency of people to refuse what is aimed down their throats?

Reaganesque brand

Everyone talks about the need for a New Kind of Republican. The GOP is actually looking for a return to the Reaganesque brand that actually won elections: upbeat, unapologetic and consistent conservatism. After eight years of Obama, it is the Democrats who should be looking to reinvent.

Meanwhile, the Republican field seeks to reconnect — with a conservative base underenthused by its last two nominees. That connection must involve a candidate who can simultaneously win over new voters, crossover voters and independents. The Ted Cruz mission is to broaden his appeal without softening his conservative credentials. The Rand Paul challenge is to reassure national security hawks that he is not too reticent in fighting global jihad.

The Marco Rubio challenge, at least at the starting gate, seems less daunting. If he can maintain the stirring, inclusive imagery from his announcement in Miami, and follow it with campaign and debate performances that suggest he can run the country as well as some expected respectable governors have run their states, we could well be looking at two kinds of history on Nov. 9, 2016: Our first national-party female nominee and our first national-party Hispanic nominee.

Mark Davis is a North Texas-based conservative talk show host who regularly writes for the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.