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One less selling day impacts car sales
By Kalea Hall
YOUNGSTOWN
One fewer selling day this March will have an obvious impact on auto sales.
But seasonally adjusted data show an expected year-over-year increase for March 2015 over March 2014, analysts say.
Automakers are expected to release March sales data today.
Edmunds analysts predict a seasonally adjusted annual rate [SAAR] of sales at 16.9 million new units for March 2015 compared with its rate of 16.4 million in March 2014. SAAR is a 12-month running estimate that takes out seasonal factors to show the current health of the automotive market.
“I think that is really telling the health of the industry,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds analyst. “The industry has very strong momentum.”
Analysts for Edmunds expect to see 1.52 million new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. in March, which would be a 21.3 percent increase from February 2015 but a 0.8 percent decrease from March 2014.
That month was strong because of pent-up demand. Kelley Blue Book analyst Alec Gutierrez said consumers returned to the market last March, and that meant more sales. Sales this March are expected to bump up, just not as much as last year.
Overall, KBB predicts 1.53 million units will have beensold in March, which would be a slight decline from last year. Like Edmunds, KBB projects a 16.9 million SAAR.
Compact cars, such as the Lordstown-built Chevrolet Cruze, are still a high-volume seller, but the segment’s growth shows a decline from last year. KBB projects 220,000 compact cars will be sold in March 2015 compared with 224,693 last year.
Compact sport utility vehicles show an increase in growth year-over-year in the KBB predictions with 190,000 sales in March 2015 compared with 185,684 in March 2014.
General Motors’ sales in March 2015 are not expected to show much growth from last year, but seasonally-adjusted data show the automaker with at least a 4 percent increase in sales, Gutierrez said.
“I think GM’s product portfolio is in a good spot right now,” he said. “They protect that to maintain discipline and not overspend on incentives and not to put too much inventory on the ground.”
KBB expects the automaker’s sales to stay at about 256,000, while it expects to see the most growth from Toyota with an estimate of 223,000 units sold in March 2015 compared to 215,348 in March 2014.
TrueCar analysts expect to see GM have a slight increase in sales from last year, estimating 256,900 sales.
TrueCar also foresees about 1.52 million units sold, overall. TrueCar projections show a 16.9 millionSAAR.
TrueCar analysts credited the slight decline in sales from last year to the rough weather and one fewer weekend to make sales. There were 25 selling days this year compared with 26 in March 2014.
With adjustments for the one fewer selling day, TrueCar shows a 3.1 percent increase in sales.
GM incentive spending is down by 7.8 percent, according to TrueCar estimates.
“Sales are slightly up with incentives down, and that is pretty good for the bottom line,” said Larry Dominique, executive vice president of industry solutions for TrueCar.