Governor campaign runs low on TV ads

Columbus Dispatch

COLUMBUS

Ohioans have seen one TV ad so far this election season that deals with the attempt by Gov. John Kasich and GOP lawmakers three years ago to limit collective-bargaining rights for public employees.

And that ad was paid for by Kasich.

“It’s the great irony of this race,” said Democratic strategist Alan Melamed.

The irony is that no one, not Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ed FitzGerald nor some pro-labor political action committee, has gone on the air with a 30-second piece about Senate Bill 5, repealed by 62 percent of Ohio voters after a petition drive netted nearly a million valid signatures — more than 1 in 8 registered voters.

The fact that such an ad might not come at all this fall is a strong indicator that the typical political TV ad war expected in the Ohio governor’s race has largely fizzled.

Almost two months remain until Election Day, meaning the dynamics could change. But analysts say spending on TV political ads this year is not only miles off the pace from the 2012 presidential election — when a race for the White House and the U.S. Senate generated more than $200 million on ads — but is also likely to be far lower than the spending from the 2010 governor’s race.

So far, Kasich has spent about $3 million on TV ads and has millions remaining. FitzGerald spent $1 million on an ad over a period of weeks. But with far less than $1 million in his campaign coffers, he might not run another ad this year.

In high-profile races such as a governor’s campaign, outside special interest groups normally go on TV to either support one candidate or tear down another. Melamed, the Democratic strategist, was the spokesman for one such group — Our Future Ohio — which formed late in 2010 and spent “millions” to try to help Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland hold off Kasich.

But this year, the outside groups have largely stayed away from Ohio. The Republican Governors Association had a seven-figure ad buy in August against FitzGerald, but those ads have come down, and the RGA is not expected to advertise in Ohio the rest of the campaign because the race is not viewed as competitive.

The Democratic Governors Association hasn’t run any commercials in Ohio this year and has no plans to do so. And there are no plans for any ads from the AFL-CIO as of now.

For comparison’s sake, approximately $35 million was spent on political ads (for all campaigns) in the Columbus media market in 2010 — which means the total spending in the state was much higher.

“Those kinds of dollars come in during highly competitive campaigns when there is interest inside and outside the state,” Melamed said. “The situation with Ed announcing he was shifting his resources back to the party for [voter turnout help] doesn’t engender this as a race to invest in. It certainly doesn’t appear at this point in time that you’ll see any significant participation from outside parties.”

The relative dearth of ads from the top of the ticket this year does represent an opportunity for candidates for attorney general, auditor and other statewide offices to make a greater impact on TV, operatives told The Dispatch. But perhaps not through more TV ads.

Campaigns set their budgets virtually at the outset, and in most cases, they plan to spend between 85 and 90 percent of what they raise on ads, said Scott Borgemenke, longtime GOP operative and informal adviser to Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted.

The TV budgets for down-ticket candidates won’t change, but the candidates’ odds of reaching voters with their message does improve.

“Because there’s less clutter, you’re going to be able to drive your message with fewer ads,” Borgemenke said.