Holiday retail spending to rise 1.4% in Valley, study finds

Staff report

COLUMBUS

A new study forecasts that holiday retail spending in the Youngstown area will increase 1.4 percent from last year, a figure well below a statewide increase of 3.5 percent during November and December.

According to researchers at the University of Cincinnati’s Economics Center, retail sales in Mahoning and Trumbull counties will top out about $535 million this year.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation is projecting a growth of 3.9 percent in holiday sales across the country.

Joe Bell, a spokesman for Eastwood Mall owner Cafaro Co., said he thought the low estimates reflect assumptions about the budgets of local consumers.

“My only guess is that they’re estimating the folks are more conservative spenders in this area, or that they have less disposable income,” he said.

Bell added he expects retail sales to be “reasonably good” and closer to the state and national averages.

The Economics Center study cited a slight increase in the state sales tax — from 5.5 percent to 5.75 percent — to be a drag on holiday spending.

But Bell said he expected the tax bump to have a “negligible” effect on consumer behavior.

“I don’t sense a lot of pessimism” among retailers, he said.