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Jobless rate goes up
YOUNGSTOWN
The Mahoning Valley’s year-over-year jobless rate in January barely moved even as the labor force shed 2,000 workers at the same time.
According to data released Tuesday by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, the seasonally unadjusted jobless rate in January was 9.5 percent, compared with 9.6 percent a year earlier and 7.7 percent in December — a deceiving month-to-month spike in unemployment.
Locally, ODJFS does not account for the seasonal increase in layoffs after the holidays and during the colder winter months as it does for statewide data. For example, Ohio’s seasonally unadjusted rate in January was 8.4 percent, while its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7 percent.
“This is the worst month of the year to rely on these numbers,” said Cleveland-based economist George Zeller. “The accuracy and reliability is very low.”
The steady increase in unemployment heading into the winter is common, Zeller said. It usually begins in November, when last year it edged up to 7.3 percent, the first increase in the Valley’s combined jobless rate since July.
Mahoning County unemployment dropped to 9.4 percent in January, compared with 9.6 percent a year earlier, while Trumbull County’s jobless rate increased to 9.5 percent from 9.2 percent. Both counties contributed to the Valley’s labor-force reduction.
Columbiana County managed to grow its labor force, as unemployment went from 10.2 percent last year to 9.9 percent in January. Unlike the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ODJFS does not conduct its own statewide survey. Instead, it relies on the bureau’s Current Population Survey, which goes to tens of thousands of households nationwide to determine unemployment. ODJFS takes Ohio samples from those results and uses a model to determine the state’s jobless rates, potentially skewing results for some months.
Compared with other places such as Cleveland and Cincinnati, which saw significant increases in unemployment in January, Zeller said the Valley’s figures are among some of the best in Ohio.
Based on new unemployment claims filed with the state, the Youngstown- Warren region had the best job growth among Ohio’s urban areas.
“Youngstown-Warren is doing better than the rest of the state,” Zeller said. “Manufacturing growth, gas drilling and economic production are all up.”
Michael Conway, executive director of the Mahoning Valley Economic Development Corp., agreed. His nonprofit organization has seen a rise in small- business lending in the past month, reversing a dip that began in the fall.
At the same time, he said rail traffic in Youngstown and Warren, on lines the organization owns, is at an all-time high, as more companies exchange goods and do more business.
Zeller said he suspects that unemployment figures could remain high at least until April, especially if the $85 billion in federal spending cuts, known as the sequester, continue to be phased in during the next several months, causing the region more federal and state jobs.
Mekael Teshome, an economist at PNC Bank, said he expects the sequester to stay in place. He added, however, that the private sector, with steady growth in areas such as the housing and financial markets, is strong enough to fend off any headwinds that federal budget challenges could pose to economic growth.
“Ohio and Western Pennsylvania both have manufacturing sectors that depend on cyclical industries that are tied to the national economy,” Teshome said. “On a macro level, overall growth is absolutely beneficial to the state.”