Playoff chases are taking shape

If only a handful of Mahoning Valley football teams are alive for Week 13, the results from Week 7 will be a major reason why.

Unbeaten Crestview and Brookfield rolled again, and Warren JFK (6-1) went on the road to Parma Heights for an impressive victory over Holy Name.

Howland dismissed Poland and Warren Harding won at Euclid. Ursuline (4-3) shook off a three-game losing streak by marching into Steubenville and blasting Big Red, 31-7.

However, several of the teams who had been hot saw cold water splashed into their faces last Friday. Their chances of advancing to the regional final aren’t promising.

Fitch traveled to Massillon’s Paul Brown Tiger Stadium and lost for the first time (34-14). The Falcons may not be able to escape a Week 12 against top-ranked St. Ignatius.

Boardman, which already had huge losses to Cardinal Mooney and Fitch, went on the road to North Canton where Hoover romped to a 42-20 victory.

Niles was unbeaten until Hubbard invaded and inflicted a 43-14 beatdown. Struthers appeared playoff-bound until getting ambushed at Beaver Local.

Suddenly, a long, busy postseason for the Valley has gone from possible to doubtful.

This week’s computer playoff ratings show 19 teams (all not named Cardinal Mooney) in contention for the postseason (all in the top 12 in each region). The 20th one (also known as Mooney) could sneak in even though the Cardinals (2-4) are 17th in Division III Region 11.

Of the aforementioned 19, only four — Niles, Brookfield, Crestview and Warren JFK — would get a home game if the playoffs began now. The top eight teams in each region qualify for the playoffs. The first round matches the top seed vs. number eight, second seed vs. seven, and so on.

Opening on the road in Week 11 usually is not a sign of a team hanging around long in the bonus season, especially for public schools. Playing on your home field does not guarantee a victory, but most Week 11 winners don’t have a long ride home.

If the playoffs began tonight, 13 Valley teams would be in. For the nine that would open on the road, there’s still time to move up — or drop down.

For instance, Niles (6-1) plays Howland (6-1) tonight for the All-American Conference American Division crown. If the Red Dragons lose again, they probably will tumble out of the Division III Region 9 third spot. If Howland loses, the Tigers’ playoff chances will take a big hit. Currently, the Tigers are seventh in Division II Region 5.

Fitch, the number six seed in Division I Region 1, needs to win out to secure a playoff berth. It’s certainly possible — the Falcons’ remaining opponents (Marion Harding, Uniontown Lake and Mooney) are a combined 7-13.

Boardman (4-3), twelfth in Region 1, could win out and it might not be enough. The Spartans’ remaining opponents (Massillon Jackson, Canton McKinley and Lake) are a combined 10-10 and won’t provide much in secondary points.

Struthers (4-3) fell to eighth in Division III Region 11 and must find a way to beat Niles or Howland in the final two weeks.

So how could 17th-ranked Mooney jump nine spots in just three weeks? The Cardinals close against Erie McDowell (2-4), Ursuline and Fitch. If Mooney gets five wins, the Cardinals will get their shot at defending their Division III title.

Tom Williams is a sportswriter for The Vindicator. Email him at williams@vindy.com.