Beware consequences of war

Opinion: March 15, 2012 at 12:00a.m.

By Uri Dromi

McClatchy Newspapers

The recent meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exposed the gap between the two leaders on the hottest issue: Military action to stop Iran from becoming nuclear. While the two leaders fully agree that “all options are on the table,” the differences evolve around the priority of the military action over alternative tracks, and on the question of timing.

Assuming that a military action against Iran could generate a worldwide violent Iranian reaction, it is worthwhile to reflect for a moment on the human inability to forecast the outcomes and repercussions of war.

A case in point is the First World War. While it was sparked by the assassination of the Austrian Prince Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, in June 1914, the motives that led to it were much deeper. The Austro-Hungarian emperor strove to put an end to Serbia’s ongoing intransigence. The German kaiser encouraged him to do so, hoping to improve his position vis-a-vis Great Britain and establish Germany as the major power in Europe. The Russian tsar, humiliated by his country’s impotence in previous crises in the Balkans, rushed to help his Serbian allies, hoping this time to succeed and to destabilize the Austro-Hungarian empire. France and Great Britain, were sucked into the vortex to help allies.

Traffic to war

By the way, once mobilization started, this was a one-way traffic to war. When in the summer of 1914 British Foreign Minister Sir Edward Grey tried to pre-empt the outbreak of the imminent war by initiating certain peace moves, the German kaiser asked his chief-of-staff, Gen. Helmut von Moltke Jr., to stop the mobilization. “Impossible,” said the general, explaining that the strict transportation plan didn’t allow it. Military considerations, then, prevailed over the political judgment, and the rest is history.

Once Europe was turned to rubble and millions were buried, what happened to the hopes and the expectations of the main protagonists before the war? The mighty, centuries-old Austro-Hungarian empire collapsed like a house of cards. Germany, humiliated by the Treaty of Versailles, produced a Hitler who later brought much greater disasters. Russia fell to seven decades of communism, France was so weakened that it surrendered infamously in 1940, Great Britain lost a generation of fine men in the trenches, and so on and so forth.

Speaking to AIPAC, President Obama gave the pro-Israeli lobby a glimpse of his thinking on the issue of war. This didn’t happen last week, but rather four years ago, when he was running for president. He was reflecting on the war in Iraq in which, in his words, the “U.S. military has performed valiantly and brilliantly.” Nevertheless, continued then-Sen. Obama, “A consequence of the (Bush) administration’s failed strategy in Iraq has been to strengthen Iran’s strategic position; reduce U.S. credibility and influence in the region; and place Israel and other nations friendly to the United States in greater peril.”

This doesn’t mean that military action to stop Iran from becoming nuclear should be ruled out, whether by the United States or by Israel. However, every effort should be made to exhaust other means, before the bombers take off and the missiles are launched.

Uri Dromi writes about Israeli affairs for The Miami Herald. Distributed by MCT Information Services.