Leaving Afghanistan won’t be easy, and can’t be done quickly

It should not come as a surprise that the tragic rampage of a presumably deranged U.S. soldier would result in new voices — even the voices of previously hawkish politicians — calling for an accelerated withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

Depending on what happens over the next few days, those voices could become even louder. Obviously the atmosphere in Afghanistan is going to become even more dangerous for U.S. troops on the ground if anti-American sentiment gains new support, similar to that following the furor over burned Qurans at a U.S. base. Six U.S. soldiers were killed by Afghan troops in the wake of the Quran burnings.

U.S. military officials say probable cause has been found to hold an as-yet-unidentified American soldier suspected in a shooting spree that killed 16 Afghan civilians. He is accused of leaving a U.S. base in Panjwai district of southern Kandahar province and gunning down the Afghan civilians, including nine children and three women. They were killed in their homes in the middle of the night.

But as tempting as it may be to announce we’re pulling out of Afghanistan and then do so, that would be the action of a sad, angry, frustrated and fearful people. It is not the action of a nation that is struggling the bear the weight that comes with being a super power.

The war in Afghanistan has dragged into its second decade, making it the longest war in U.S. history. It has already cost the lives of nearly 1,780 U.S. military personnel. Nearly 15,500 have been wounded. There are those who can argue persuasively that such numbers already prove that our national sacrifice has been too high.

Why we went to Afghanistan

But we went to Afghanistan for a specific reason, to bring to justice the al-Qaida terrorists who mounted the attacks of 9/11 and remove their Taliban enablers from power.

Ironically, the best chance from extricating our troops from Afghanistan now may lie in a power sharing arraignment between the elected government and the Taliban. That would leave us with little more than the satisfaction of knowing that Osama bin Laden, the 9/11 mastermind, was killed by a U.S. Seal team last year.

But the United States has a legitimate national security concern if Afghanistan, because its next door neighbor is Pakistan. And if Afghanistan falls once again to the Taliban, anti-government forces in Pakistan will once again have a safe haven from which to launch their attacks. And Pakistan is a potentially huge national security risk for the United States and the rest of the Western world.

While incredible amounts of attention and concern are aimed at Iran’s possible nuclear ambitions, Pakistan already has a nuclear arsenal.

As contentious as U.S. relations may have been with President Asif Ali Zardari, a republican form of government in Islamabad is vital to the stability of the region. And part of assuring that stability in Pakistan rests on what happens in Afghanistan.

President Barack Obama has instructed his top commander in Afghanistan, Marine Gen. John Allen, to cut the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan from 90,000 to 68,000 by the end of September. No plan to accomplish that has been submitted to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. And until that is accomplished, a total withdrawal by as early as 2014 is little more than wishful thinking.

Here are some rules of war worth remembering: They are easier to get into than to get out of; their cost in human life and national treasure is higher than anticipated, and whatever victory is achieved rarely meets expectations.