Millions in US still will go uninsured if law remains

Associated Press

One of the biggest misconceptions about President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul isn’t who the law will cover, but rather who it won’t.

If it survives Supreme Court scrutiny, the landmark overhaul will expand coverage to about 30 million uninsured people, according to government figures. But an estimated 26 million U.S. residents will remain without coverage — a population that’s roughly the size of Texas and includes illegal immigrants and those who can’t afford to pay out-of-pocket for health insurance.

To be sure, it’s estimated that the Affordable Care Act would greatly increase the number of insured Americans. The law has a provision that requires most Americans to be insured or face a tax penalty. It also calls for an expansion of Medicaid, a government-funded program that covers the health-care costs of low-income and disabled Americans. Additionally, starting in 2014, there will be tax credits to help middle-class Americans buy coverage.

The Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision this month on whether to uphold the law completely or strike down parts or all of it. If it survives, about 93 percent of all nonelderly, legal U.S. residents will be covered by 2016. That’s up from 82 percent this year.

Still, millions of illegal immigrants won’t qualify for coverage. And many legal U.S. residents will go without insurance, too.

Here’s a look at some of the groups that likely will remain uninsured if the law survives:

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

More than 11 million unauthorized immigrants live in the United States, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research center. That amounts to nearly 4 percent of the total population. But there are no provisions that address illegal immigrants in the health-care law.

LOST IN TRANSLATION

Medicaid, which currently covers more than 60 million people, is expected to add about 17 million more people to its program by 2016 if the law is upheld, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

But people still are expected to fall through the cracks. That’s because the requirements and process for signing up for Medicaid can be confusing. And though the overhaul aims to make the process easier, it won’t smooth out all the wrinkles.

LIVING IN THE GAP

The overhaul calls for tax credits to help middle-class Americans buy coverage. But some people who make too much money to qualify for the tax credits may have a hard time finding an affordable option for private health insurance.

The subsidies can pay a large chunk of the insurance bill. But the tax credits will go to people with incomes up to 400 percent of the federal poverty level, or $44,680 for an individual this year. People just above that level may have a hard time finding affordable health insurance.