Predictions for the new year

After toying with the idea of being Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s lieutenant governor running mate in 2010, Mahoning Valley Congressman Tim Ryan is now on a short list for the governorship in 2014.

Democratic Party leaders statewide have had their eyes on Ryan, who has represented the 17th District since January 2003, for some time. The Niles resident has lived up to his reputation as a rising star in the Democratic caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives, and has shown himself to be an effective campaigner for statewide Democratic candidates.

What also makes him attractive to party insiders is that he represents one of the strongest Democratic regions in the state and consistently wins elections with one of the highest vote totals of all congressional candidates in Ohio.

With the new districts in effect this year, Ryan not only has one of the largest concentration of Democratic voters, but he is unopposed in the March 6 primary. He will face Republican opposition in November, but if the past is prologue, he shouldn’t have much trouble winning re-election.

Prediction for 2012: Ryan will be heavily courted this year and next and will run for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014 if former Gov. Strickland, who lost to Kasich, does not make a bid. Ryan will not challenge his friend, Strickland.

Kasich’s first year in office has revealed a soft political underbelly that Democrats are going to spend the next three years exploiting.

Youngstown mayor

When Charles Sammarone, a veteran of Youngstown politics, was sworn in as mayor in August, he let it be known that he intended to serve only until the end of 2013. Sammarone became the city’s chief executive by virtue of being council president when Jay Williams resigned to join the administration of President Barack Obama.

Williams had won a second four-year term in 2009 and was planning to stick around for four years when the White House came calling. It’s tough to say no to the president. It’s even tougher when he wants you to be the nation’s auto czar.

For his part, Sammarone was content to end his political career as council president when the mayor’s job opened up.

He took it — to complete Williams’ term.

But a funny thing has happened in the past five months: Sammarone likes the challenge the job of mayor offers and he’s developing an agenda to effectuate major systemic changes in city government. However, it will take more than two years for any substantive progress to be made.

Prediction for 2012: The mayor will run for a full term next year — but only if the Youngstown Charter Review Commission, which will meet this year, adopts his recommendation that the terms of office for mayor and council be changed to two years, from the current four. The terms for mayor and council members had been two years for a long time until voters changed them to four.

Sammarone is of the opinion that requiring the mayor and council members to run every two years forces them to be more accountable to the people.

If the voters amend the Youngstown Home Rule Charter this year, the mayor will seek one term to complete the job he has started.

Democratic chairman

Mahoning County Chairman David Betras is still smarting from last year’s snub by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, a Republican, when he sought appointment to the board of elections. Husted ignored the recommendation of the Democratic Party’s central committee, saying he had concerns about Betras’ relationship with disgraced former Attorney General Marc Dann.

Dr. George Beelen was named to fill the vacancy on the board created by the resignation of Michael Morley, whose term ends soon.

The county party will ask the secretary of state to appoint Betras to a full term; it would be blow to the chairman’s ego if were again turned down.

Husted must know that his decision not to put Betras on the board of elections will be viewed as reluctance on the part of Republicans to bring on board someone who has publicly pledged to conduct a top-to-bottom review of the operations of the elections office. The director, Thomas McCabe, is a Republican.

Prediction: Betras will be appointed.