Romney still front-runner in Iowa

Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa

Mitt Romney is the clear Republican front-runner in Iowa in the final days before the first voting in the 2012 presidential election. But that’s where the glimmer of clarity ends in this unpredictable nomination race.

Five others are fighting, as they have all year, to emerge as the alternative to the former Massachusetts governor.

The ascendant Rick Santorum and Rick Perry are battling to be the preferred candidate of social conservatives. Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul is working to preserve support that’s starting to slip. Newt Gingrich is struggling to end his sharp slide. Michele Bachmann is hardly a factor.

While much can happen before Tuesday’s caucuses, at this point there’s evidence that Romney is in strong contention to win. Interviews with operatives inside and outside the campaign, along with public and internal campaign polls, show him leading the pack. He’s aided by a split among conservative voters who are dividing their support among the field.

Those same interviews and polling also suggest that Paul has faded some after a surge this month, while Santorum and Perry are climbing.

With polls showing a large contingent of undecided voters, the candidates pressed their closing messages, went out with final ads and scampered across the state.

Notably absent was Paul, the Texas congressman who returned to his home state and had no campaign events in Iowa. Polls earlier in December showed him narrowly leading. But according to later surveys and to GOP activists in the state, his support has ebbed in light of attacks on his foreign-policy positions.

Despite these shifting dynamics, two things were clear on the final weekend before the first votes of 2012: The yearlong effort to establish a consensus challenger to Romney had failed and Romney’s carefully laid plan to survive Iowa was succeeding.

“This president has been a failure,” Romney told hundreds of supporters packed into the Old Salt Restaurant in Hampton, N.H., making an overnight trip to the leadoff primary state. The vote there is Jan. 10.

Romney quickly returned later Saturday to conservative Plymouth County and more populous Woodbury County, both winning areas for him in Iowa during the 2008 GOP race. He finished second in the state that year behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, although Arizona Sen. John McCain captured the party’s nomination.