Brotherhood breaks promise; Egypt’s future now uncertain

As the world awaits the verdict in the criminal trial of deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a new development in the politics of the country raises concerns about its future as a democracy.

Mubarak was chased from the power in the 18-day popular uprising that began in late January 2011. Eight hundred and forty-six people were killed and thousands injured by government forces.

Mubarak and his two sons were charged with abusing power to amass wealth, enriching associates and accepting bribes. Hussein Salem, a close associate and businessman, was also put on trial. Mubarak, his former exterior minister, Habib El-Adly, and six of his aides were charged with complicity in the deadly shooting of protesters.

Presiding Judge Ahmed Refaat said at the end of the trial that his final verdict will be delivered June 2.

But the ouster of Mubarak was just one goal of the revolutionaries; the other was to put in place a democratically elected government to ensure civilian rule. However, since Feb. 11, when Mubarak resigned, the military has been in power, promising to step aside once a new constitution is written. But, a year later, the military is still running the country, as evidenced by the fact that it hand picked the prime minister. Parliamentary elections have been held, but the legislature has little power.

The elections did see the Muslim Brotherhood take control of nearly 50 percent of the seats and dominate the constituency assembly, which is writing the constitution.

And that has emboldened the Islamists — which is cause for concern,

After the revolution, the Brotherhood, which many believe is more extreme than its members claim, insisted it was not interested in the presidency. But this week, the Brotherhood announced that it was fielding a presidential candidate, prompting speculation that it had made a deal with the military. Such a partnership will be the death knell of the democracy movement in Egypt.

Indeed, Islamists in Parliament have made no secret of the direction they want the country to follow, especially with regard to social mores and the rights of women. Sharia law looms large.

Single party domination

Opponents of the Brotherhood and the military warn that the maneuvering could lead to a repeat of the Mubarak-era domination of a single party of all executive and legislative powers — only now with an Islamic tinge.

It’s a warning that the United States and other western nations should take seriously.

While Egypt plays an important role in the high-tension politics of the region, the U.S. still has a major trump card: American foreign aid to that country has averaged about $2 billion every year since 1979. It is the second largest recipient of foreign aid after Israel.

The Obama administration should make it clear to the military and the Muslim Brotherhood that a return to the dictatorial era of Hosni Mubarak will not be taken lightly. President Barack Obama needs to clearly define what the U.S. and its allies expect from a democratic Egypt.

A delegation from the Brotherhood was in Washington this week in an attempt to reassure the White House and members of Congress that moderation, not extremism, is the organization’s goal for Egypt.

Time will tell.