In Egypt, Arab Spring warmth has turned into the chill of Fall

The 18-day revolution at the start of the year in Egypt that forced the resignation of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak was hailed as one of the most important successes of the Arab Spring, a common reference to the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. But the presence of thousands of protesters in the capital, Cairo, over the past week is a stark reminder that the promise of a new beginning is not being kept.

Since Mubarak’s ouster on Feb. 11, the country has been governed by a military council led by Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who had served as Mubarak’s defense minister for two decades. Tantawi and the two dozen generals who sit on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces pledged to return Egypt to civilian rule after a transition period and parliamentary and presidential elections.

However, Egyptians have grown weary of the military rulers and now believe they will not relinquish power easily or quickly. Indeed, the generals had originally talked about presidential elections being held late next year or early in 2013. That would have meant a two-year wait for a civilian government after a revolution that resulted in 846 people killed and thousands injured.

This week’s demonstrations have also claimed more than 30 lives and hundreds of injuries at the hands of the security forces. The generals now say presidential elections will be held next June, and that parliamentary elections will begin Monday.

But the people aren’t buying what they’re selling. The generals’ decision Friday to appoint Kamal el-Ganzouri prime minister, a position he held during the Mubarak era, will not appease the protesters.

Field Marshal Tantawi and his cohorts cannot be blind to the fact that Tahrir Square, where the demonstrators are again congregating, has become a symbol of Egyptians rising up against dictatorial rule. Mubarak misread the determination of the people and could ultimately pay with his life.

The trial of the former president, his two sons, the former interior minister and senior police officers has been adjourned until Dec. 28. Lawyers representing the families of some of the victims in uprising have challenged the credibility and objectivity of the judges. There are rumblings that Tantawi wanted to absolve Mubarak of any responsibility for the killing of the 800-plus during the revolution.

Military involvement

At the heart of the latest public uprising is the fear that one dictatorship has been replaced by another. The ruling junta insists it has no intentions of clinging to power, the way Mubarak and his sons did, but there have been news reports that even with the election of a civilian government, the military still wants to have a direct role in the running of the country.

That would be a recipe for disaster, as evidenced by their willingness to use the fire power of the safety forces to quell the demonstrations. The only chance Egypt has of shedding the shackles of dictatorial rule is for open and honest parliamentary and presidential elections in which all parties have the chance to compete.

International criticism of the military rulers continues to mount, while the protesters keep up their demands that the generals immediately relinquish the reins of power.

Germany, one of the Egypt’s top trading partners, has called for the quick transfer of power to civilian government. An interim government representing the various political parties should be appointed to run the country while parliamentary and presidential elections are conducted.

Anything less, and the protests in Tahrir Square will get larger, resulting in more deaths and injuries.

It will become the winter of Egyptians’ discontent.